Ethiopia Wages War on The Tigrayan People's Liberation Front

 

Ethiopia has come to a point of ethnic conflict. The Ethiopian military has sought to wipe out the Tigrayan People's  Liberation Front, which could result in a long term civil war. The tension between Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo has grown in recent years. The Tigray have accused the government of marginalizing them since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The conflict will spillover into neighboring countries, which could attract external interference. Prime Minister Abiy Amed's peace with Eritrea could be jeopardize depending on how the military operations on the TPLF go. Somalia remains a failed state, with terrorist organizations active there. Refugees  have fled into Sudan, a country attempting to adjust in a post-Omar al-Bashir political atmosphere. Ethiopia still has a dispute with Egypt over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. The Nile River is a pivotal water source which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have an interest in. The African Union has not made any immediate plans for action or possible pressure to stop the violence. The biggest fear is that Ethiopia could be starting a process of balkanization, with new states emerging constantly at war with one another.  

Jerry Rawlings Condemns The ICC (2012)

 

Jerry Rawlings (1947-2020) has passed away. The fourth president of Ghana will be remembered for his revolutionary ideology. He was a controversial figure serving as both a military ruler and then elected civilian president of the country. After serving as president, Rawlings was active as an elder statesmen. Always vocal about foreign policy and the status quo set by the international community, he exposed the most obvious bias. Jerry Rawlings stated in 2012 the flaws of the International Criminal Court. The ICC has only targeted African leaders for war crimes. Never has there been any political figures from the UK, US, France, Germany, or Italy. The deaths that occurred in the NATO intervention in Libya demonstrate that the most powerful nations will never face charges for war crimes. Jerry Rawlings was not afraid to also criticize African leaders who acted as collaborators in neocolonial projects. The myth of humanitarian intervention has been used to wage aggressive war around the world and the UN does nothing to prevent this. Rawlings argument is a reminder that African nations must work together to prevent violence directed at them through political and military means. 

The Escalation of Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

 

The world is in many ways still dealing with the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Armenia and Azerbaijan when the Soviet Union collapsed became independent nations. No longer under Russian control, old ethnic tensions reemerged. The source of contention is the region known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Both nations claim certain areas of what was at one time an autonomous region as their own. A ceasefire was agreed upon in 1994. Conflagrations once more erupted in 2016. However, the difference in the 2020 clashes reveal that this could escalate into a much larger war. The issue is that a Portion of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh wants to merge with Armenia. Azerbaijan does not want to lose any territory to its enemy. The Soviet Union created this space to act as a buffer zone against possible ethnic conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The biggest fear was that any ethnic revolt would would cause the U.S.S.R to fall. Armenian forces occupy territories surrounding the disputed region. Azerbaijan starting in July of 2020 made attempts to gain more territory in   Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting has intensified with other nations calling on a ceasefire to be made. A large long term war will gain the attention of  Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Armenia and Azerbaijan need to have a permanent peace settlement rather than just temporary ceasefires. A conflict between two nations can easily spread to its neighbors.  Being between both the Caspian and Black Sea makes an Armenia- Azerbaijan war   too geopolitically significant to ignore. 

President Uhuru Kenyatta Calls For An End To Sanctions on Zimbabwe

 

President Kenyatta demanded that sanctions placed on Zimbabwe be lifted. Kenya has shown a level of solidarity with another African state, that could be setting a change in foreign policy. Zimbabwe has been under sanctions since 2002 and it has contributed to harming its economy. The reason the UK and US imposed sanctions was based on the elections of 2002, which they claimed were fraudulent. The real motive was about land distribution and the fact that the UK in particular did not honor the Lancaster House Agreement. At the time, President Robert Mugabe took the land that was suppose to be given to those who were victim of the 1960s land theft from white settlers. President Emmerson Mnangagwa  wants to see sanctions lifted, but not at the expense of Zimbabwe's sovereignty. African leaders are growing tired of sanctions imposed by the West arbitrarily. Besides mentioning Zimbabwe, President Uhuru Kenyatta also stated he would like to see sanctions lifted on Sudan and Cuba. Imposing sanctions for  political disagreement or regime change should be considered a violation of international law. Making the people suffer by denying an economic lifeline or basic supplies is a human rights violation. Nations that seek investment in a sanctioned nation could find themselves facing penalties.  Other leaders may join President Kenyatta to put an end to sanctions that clearly have an ulterior motive in mind. Overtime diplomatic relations between Kenya and Zimbabwe may become stronger.   

Alpha Conde Will Seek A Third Term As President of Guinea

 

Alpha Conde has been president of Guinea since 2010. Now, the longtime leader is seeking a third term in what could be the country's most contentious  election. Before the 2013 election there were clashes.   There are fears that such events could repeat in 2020. ECOWAS may respond in a similar manner like it did with Gambia. The African Union and ECOWAS have been known to intervene in states, which suffer from extreme political instability and factionalism. The challenge for African states is keeping free and fair elections and imposing term limits on presidents. Leaders of certain African nations extend their rule through referendums or electoral fraud. Guinea has a total of 12 candidates running for the presidency. The opposition remains fractured, indicating that Conde will most likely get a third term. Voters have until the October 18th to cast their ballots. Post-election violence is common in various countries that do not have a long history of democratic government. Conde compared  to the more authoritarian presidents of the African continent is more of a reformer. Many times he was the opposition to previous administrations.  When elected to his first term, he promised to confront corruption and strengthen  democratic institutions. So far, these has progressed slowly and the public grows more restless. A third Conde term may not bring the change that Guinea desires. 

COVID-19 Has Taken 1.4 Million Lives

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has killed up to 1.4 million people globally. The United States, Italy, India, and China have been hit the hardest from the pandemic. African nations have seen lower infection and death rates compared to Europe.   Infections continue to rise around the world and it appears that the public health crisis is far from over. Countries such as Russia and the US are rushing to develop a vaccine. It is not definitely know  if it will be effective. Fears of a second wave also are on the minds of the public and world governments. Public health protection has been shown to be very weak in the face of a pandemic. Private insurance has failed to provide for American citizens. Governments with state funded healthcare have managed the pandemic better in comparison. Countries like Vietnam and Uganda have avoided the worst of the pandemic, even though they are not developed nations. Quarantines, lockdowns, social distancing , and wearing masks have been done to stop the spread of the virus. However, it has to brought an end to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some have resisted these measures, which only makes the public health crisis last longer. Health science has not figured out the best method of defeating the virus. Misinformation and conspiracy theory has created an anti-mask and anti-lockdown movement. More deaths could occur, unless there is drastic action from the UN and WHO. World powers such as US, China, Russia, UK, Germany, and France must cooperate to confront the global health crisis. If this does not happen, the COVID-19 pandemic could last for years.  

Growing Demonstrations Against Police Violence in The United States

 

The US is experiencing more protests against the escalation of police violence. The murder of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor by law enforcement has demonstrated  America's distain for its African American population . The police have the ability to murder without punishment or repercussions. The people however, will no longer tolerate such vicious behavior. The demonstrations will continue as long as violence is directed a the African American community. The tactics and methods used by police only reveal that basic rights are gradually be taken away. Both presidential candidates are not committed to police reform, because they know when conditions get worse they will require them to end an uprising. A police force does not exist for fighting crime or protecting the public. Law enforcement's role is to inflict violence on the behalf of the ruling elite and maintain a political system. Simple reforms will not have an effect, if entire police departments are corrupt. Police officers must be changed and incarcerated for murder. There is a growing problem of white supremacist infiltration of police departments in the United States. A growing right-wing extremist  movement is  spreading through the country. Reforms are actively being rejected by police unions. Protests have been peaceful, but there have been cases of  looting and property damage. The majority of  violence comes from police directing their ire at protesters. America continues to descend more into what would be a police state, with civil unrest being common. If change  does not happen it only increases the possibility of mass insurrection.