The Biden administration has announced its intention of US withdraw from Afghanistan. The exit of US troops will be gradual with September 11th being the set deadline. The Afghan War has been the longest conflict in US history. The devastation will have a lasting impact of the people living in the Central Asian nation. The war was overseen by four presidential administrations and no solution was reached. This withdraw is not American troops just leaving a deteriorating country. The United States was defeated similar to the Vietnam conflict. Slowly the mendacious claims about democracy promotion and fighting terrorism have unraveled. Nation building projects do not exist for the sake of human rights. The objective is to advance a neocolonial imperialist agenda. The war in Afghanistan was presented to the public as a dire emergency that required military force. The 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon was used as a justification for humanitarian intervention into Afghanistan. The target was Al-Qaeda and governments that were providing them bases. The Taliban refused to extradite Osama Bin Laden, because they wanted evidence he was directly involved in the attacks. When this occurred the US then considered the Taliban as an enemy. Out of this grew a popular fiction. The idea that Al-Qaeda and the Taliban were a giant military threat emerged. Al-Qaeda was presented as a omnipotent organization that was responsible for terrorism across the globe. Terrorist groups existed before Al-Qaeda and many were working independently from one another. Osama Bin Laden did not have complete control over these terrorist groups in other countries. Bin Laden was more so a patron of some groups rather than a leader or fighter. The War on Terror was a justification for the US expanding into Central Asia and the Middle East. President George W. Bush started the Afghan War and his successors continued it with the hope of pushing further into the region. Beyond just mere economic exploitation and increasing geopolitical power an idea was being experimented with. Imposing liberal democracy through military force was a neoconservative political vision for the world. Afghanistan was a testing ground for US nation building and extremist neoconservative foreign policy. Other nations were to fall victim to America's rampage which included Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Somalia. Afghanistan had a unique situation seeing as it was the first to experience a new type of US military aggression. President Joseph Biden may not meet the indented deadline considering the situation has become more unstable. Past presidents have made promises of withdraw, but have vacillated. Afghanistan's internal challenges will spread across borders.
The war in Afghanistan has involved both NATO and US forces. Unlike Iraq, this was a multilateral military intervention. When the invasion commenced in 2001, opposition was to the conflict was not as potent. There was a lack of understanding about the country and the complexities in a wider geopolitical context. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to maintain the Marxist regime. Following this was a growing armed resistance. The mujahideen would fight the Soviet occupation with aid coming from Pakistan and the United States. America's intelligence apparatus armed the groups that could become the future terrorists. The Soviet withdraw in 1989 left a power void in Afghanistan's fractured society. The country was in a state of civil war. Al-Qaeda emerged around 1988. The country provided the organization a base of operations. The Taliban was both a movement and armed group that appeared around 1994. The most formidable adversary of the Taliban was the Northern Alliance. Ultimately, the Taliban would rule most the country by 1996. By the year 2000, the Taliban was close to controlling all of the country. Mohammed Omar the founder and leader of the Taliban was de facto head of state. Little is known about how much he contributed to Osama Bin Laden's activities. At the time, the Taliban was at the height of its power and Bin Laden was losing significance in the political Islamist movement. Attempts at starting building Islamic republics in Sudan, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia were not successful. The instability in Afghanistan allowed for Osama to move freely and try once more to build a movement that could depose the secular regimes of North Africa and the Middle East.
The US invasion at first used planes and drones to bomb select targets. Special forces then followed after the bombing campaigns. The Taliban fell from power, but the insurgency continued. The US-NATO forces were fighting a conventional war, while the Taliban used guerilla warfare. Afghanistan's mountainous terrain makes it perfect for this type of irregular warfare. The is not one Taliban. There are man armed branches of it throughout the country. Pakistan has been accused of aiding some sections of it on its borders. Neighboring countries have gotten more involved in Afghanistan's internal affairs. Uzbekistan provided bases to US combat soldiers during the war. Iran wanted to see the Taliban fall, because it did not want a Sunni Muslim state at its border. Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have economic interests in the country. The Afghan War gave the US an opportunity to have a larger foothold in Central Asia. This would be modeled similar to how the US has influence in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. The invasion was the start of a new decline in Russia-US relations. As it became clear that there was not plan for an exit under the Bush administration, Russia began reconfiguring its foreign policy. When President Obama was elected relations were beyond repair. Drone attacks increased and the US-NATO forces became a permanent feature. There have been discussions of withdraw for years. So far, they are nothing more than empty promises. President Trump proposed a peace deal with the Taliban, but there was not commitment to full scale withdraw. This is why some critics are skeptical of President Joseph Biden's statements.
The US withdraw may not be what it appears. US-NATO combat troops could exit, but special forces and a large intelligence apparatus could remain. Air strikes and drone attacks could still continue. There is another possibility. The withdraw is an admission of defeat. The war can not be won. The conflict between 2006 to present has become a battle of attrition. The United States continued to use conventional tactics, while the Taliban adapted to the changing conditions. Ambushes, the use of IEDs, and infiltration into the armed forces kept the Taliban formidable. Afghanistan has a long history of fighting invasions. Attempts at conquest were never really successful. Alexander the Great tried to add the country to his empire, but met intense resistance. The British Empire fought the Anglo-Afghan Wars sending troops from its Indian colony. Britain was never able to fuse the country into its empire. The Russian Empire was not able to absorb it either like other Central Asian states. History demonstrates a war with Afghanistan is no simple task. The costs are increasing to conduct long term warfare would require a dramatic increase in taxes.
The American public would not accept this. Growing evidence of war crimes and civilian deaths has also made the war more unpopular. The only way to win such a conflict would be to use more force and along with assistance from neighboring states. Pakistan, India, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan would have to have their armies active in Afghanistan combined with the NATO-US force. This is not a realistic plan, due to the fact India and Pakistan still have contentious relations. The United States remains hostile to Iran and does not want to see its influence spread. A permanent occupation force along with a hated government makes resistance grow stronger. A military solution is not possible unless there is total war . Such brutality would further damage America's international reputation . It has been declining since the Bush administration and changes in leadership have not improved America's image in the world. Afghanistan has become similar to America's war in Vietnam during the Cold War. The Gulf War contributed to the US overcoming one of its worst military defeats. Born out of this was a hubris knowing it was the world's sole superpower. The Afghan War brought America back into diplomatic and political reality. America can be defeated and there will be backlash from military intervention.
Fighting to eliminate terrorism is not possible. Terrorism is a tactic of asymmetric warfare. Unlike trying to challenge an ideology such as fascism or communism, terrorism is not a conviction. Political Islamism does not constitute enough of a threat to harm global security. The War on Terror is a flawed concept, because it is based on the idea that one religious and ethnic group is the source of terrorism. Muslims, Arabs, and Central Asians are in the media presented as the source of terrorism. Around the world there are multiple insurgencies and terrorist organizations that are not Muslim or West Asian. The Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda has committed various acts of terrorism and they are Christians. Myanmar has multiple armed groups that it continually fights with in its borders. To that one group has a monopoly on violence and terrorism shows racist and Islamophobic thought. Afghanistan was victim to this type of attitude by western powers. This justified egregious acts of violence over the past decades. The War on Terror narrative as the Afghan War progressed became more illogical. Osama Bin Laden was presented as an all powerful leader of a terrorist organization who extended branches across the world. He did not have control of every terrorist group that existed. Osama's influence over the internal politics of Afghanistan was more limited than previously thought. There is no indications Bin Laden was formulating policy for the Afghan government. During most of the US-NATO occupation, Osama Bin Laden was in Pakistan and was killed there in 2011. Most of the fighting in Afghanistan was done by the Taliban, not Al-Qaeda. Based on this reasoning, Pakistan should have been invaded if the purpose of the conflict was to dismantle Al-Qaeda. These action demonstrated that the War on Terror was used to legitimize wars against multiple countries. Counter-terrorism became a cover for aggressive war.
Nation building should not be an objective of foreign policy. The US applied this to its invasion of Afghanistan intending to mold it into another type of nation-state. Objectives and goals did not take into account Afghanistan is divided society among Hazara, Pashtun, Uzbek, and Tajik. A multi-ethnic society may struggle to create a single national identity. A liberal democratic system is foreign to Afghanistan. Throughout its history it has either been a monarchy, experimented with a communist regime , and theocratic government. Democratic systems cannot be imposed by invasion. The people residing in the country must be the ones to select which type of government they will have. Otherwise, the country becomes nothing more than a puppet state. Presidential elections have not produced the stability and peace that the majority of Afghans desire. Discord is growing and more armed groups could emerge in the coming instability. Neoconservatives have a vision of the world in which liberal democracy will be the only system of government. To do this, authoritarian governments must be invaded. The motive goes beyond trying to just maintaining US hegemony. The desire to transform various countries. Afghanistan during the 2000s was going to be a part of the neoconservative ambition in nation building. The long lasting conflict has brought an end to nation building as a practical policy. Considering America's growing internal problems, it should not be a model to export or imitate. The nation building projects of the West such as democracy promotion and the export of cultural values creates more conflict. The idea that a foreign power can transform another country into what it sees fit cannot work. Nation building as shown in Afghanistan projects a hubris that world powers have when associating with other countries. The United States wanted to impose a political system that Afghanistan did not want and the reaction was growing resistance. If the US remains longer the majority of the population will turn against US-NATO forces. America's nation building projects can never function in a rapidly changing international stage.
Complete withdraw could take decades if it actually happens. There are doubts that President Joseph Biden is willing or capable of making it happen. Based on the previous administrations, there is no indication that a change in US policy will happen. Previous presidents have made promises and all have broken them. Even if combat troops are to exit, private security contractors and mercenaries are going to be active. The US could return after a short withdraw. The concern would be growing Russian and Chinese influence in Afghanistan. Tension between the US, China, and Russia has grown and show no sign of reduction. This has spread to other areas of the world and there is no reason to think that Afghanistan would be excluded. The country's large lithium reserves make it a target for economic exploitation. If it could stabilize and make peace it could benefit from its natural resources. Regaining control if its economy and reasserting its national sovereignty is the only way Afghanistan can improve its condition. There are going to be major consequences for the decades of war and occupation inflicted. Blowback is inevitable, but it is uncertain what could happen. The Taliban could return to power and depose the Ashraf Ghani government. Afghans do get to elect their leaders, yet all have failed in stopping the violence or developing the country. Just like former president Hamid Karazi, President Ghani seems more like a puppet leader. Afghanistan saw limited improvement in human rights, economic condition, and infrastructure during the US occupation. Generations of frustration, hopelessness, and anger can only result in an Afghan public willing to follow an authoritarian or extremist figure. Between war, occupation, and political corruption the desire for order takes precedence . Afghanistan's experiment with liberal democracy may be short lived. History will document America's war in the country as a failed attempt to impose US power on a region. The vision of nation building as a catalyst for strengthening US influence has come to an end.
