Kim Jong Un's Health

Kim Jong Un has fallen ill and some have speculated about his condition. It would be presumptuous to assume that he is in critical condition. Kim Jong Un underwent surgery allegedly for a heart condition and has had a difficult recovery. The concern is that if he were to pass away, North Korea could become unstable. Japan would have more concern about this considering its objection to its nuclear weapons program. China also has significant investment in North Korean affairs and has sent a medical team to advise Kim. This may actually embolden the US to take more aggressive military action. The desire for regime change has never gone away, which became more intense during the Bush administration. President Obama had a policy of strategic patience, President Trump has vacillated between diplomacy and bellicose rhetoric. Besides external threats to North Korea, the question of a successor becomes a problem. So far, it has been members of the Kim family that have ruled North Korea. Commentators have stated the likely candidate could be his sister Kim Yo-Jong. At the moment it can not be certain that North Korea is going through a sudden change in leadership.    

Prime Minister Thomas Thabane and The Crisis in Lesotho

Lesotho appeared to be on the verge of another coup. Prime Minister Thomas Thabane has become a controversial figure, with his wife accused of murder of his ex-wife Lipoleo Thabane. The Southern African country has struggled with military coup's since it independence in 1966. This is not the first time Thomas Thabane served as  prime minister. He served between 2012 to 2015 and fled to South Africa when he thought his life was in danger. So far, it appears that Prime Minister Thabane is seeking immunity for himself and his wife related to the murder Lipoleo. It is possible that he could be removed from power by means of a snap election. If Prime Minister Thabane is to be removed from office it should be done by democratic means instead of extralegal means. The army was deployed on to the streets according to the government as a means of restoring order. The constitutional court rejected a plan to suspend parliament. There have been calls on Thabane to resign, but he has resisted these demands. If Lesotho becomes unstable it could generate a South African response. These two countries are closely connected both economically and politically. Thomas Thabane still remains head of the All Basotho Convention and if he remains some level of South African support he will have considerable protection.    

The IMF World Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund has predicted a very challenging global economy. There has been a sharp decline in economic growth. Such a dramatic change has not been seen since the Great Depression. The world economy suffered a major collapse in 2008 causing unemployment and a decline in living standards. Conditions are so poor that the UK may have to delay leaving the European Union once more. Some economists believe that this is only a minor recession and should stabilize once lock downs and quarantines end. This may not be the case for people who become unemployed when the public health crisis occurred. A depression may have happened regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic. Neoliberal capitalism and supply side economics has created an erratic global market. The poorest countries will be effected the most. Many are still in debt to the IMF with little benefits coming from loans. The US and EU countries will not be entirely spared. Fiscal austerity measures and structural adjustment could be used to ensure the system remains intact, It will come at the expense of the working public. The decline in social services, adequate pay, or a banking panic would result in civil unrest. At some point new solutions will be require to prevent complete breakdown of the global economy.    

Bernie Sanders Suspends His Presidential Campaign

Bernie Sanders has announced that his campaign has been suspended. This effectively means that Joe Biden has the Democratic nomination. The American left has been struggling to get its agenda and policies into action. Yet, the moderate and centerist wings of the Democratic Party seem to be the biggest obstacle. There is a clear ideological and generational divide that has not been resolved by the party. Baby boomers and the millennial voters are in conflict over economic and political ideology. Some have been nostalgic for the Obama administration, thinking that Joe Biden can return the US to a place of stability. The younger generation seems more willing to adjust tactics to make change happen. Minimal reforms may not be enough to undo the damage caused by a Trump presidency. Bernie Sanders was generating a level of enthusiasm, which Joe Biden has difficulty replicating. The fear is that President Donald Trump will be reelected, due to the fact the Democratic Party selected a candidate that does not resonate with voters. Bernie may never be president, yet a movement has been started. These numbers could possibly grow long after he has retired from public life. The 2020 presidential election will have immense significance beyond the United States. It is unclear if  there is a Joe Biden presidency whether or not economic instability, healthcare, and social inequality will be addressed. If there is not an organized left, then a more radical neoconservative right will dominate American politics.  

The US Charges Nicolas Maduro with Drug Trafficking and Proposes a Plan of Political Transition

The Trump administration no longer recognizes President Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. New charges of  drug trafficking have been made, but so far there has been little evidence to suggest that his government has a full scale operation. The United States has been attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela under the claim of protection of human rights. The ulterior motive is to get access to the country's oil and important geographic location. There has been a coordinated attempt to depose democratically elected leftist governments across Latin America. Bolivia and Brazil have been subject to a right-wing resurgence. There is a cash reward for President Maduro's arrest issued by the US government. The Trump administration has suggested that military action could be a possible option, if  President Nicolas Maduro is able to survive the political crisis.The pretext seems similar to the 1989 invasion of Panama or the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US transition plan demands that both Juan Guaido and Nicloas Maduro  step aside. Doing so would mean an interim government would be installed. Sanctions would be lifted only when the process is over by both the US and EU. Neither leader would be willing to do this. Venezuela may find itself in direct conflict with the United States. Venezuela has an alliance with Cuba,  but other countries may not come to its aid if war were to break out.