The Spread of Coronavirus

What started in China gradually is becoming a global outbreak of coronavirus. This virus has different types known as 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. This is a new type of coronavirus.  The spread of the disease has become so dire that China has effectively done quarantines. Cases of infection have reached Australia, Europe, and the United States. The virus was first detected in Wuhan. France, Thailand, Japan, Nepal, Singapore, and Vietnam have also reported cases of  coronavirus. China may not be able to cope with such a large amount of sick people. Hospitals may get overcrowded and medical supplies drastically reduced. This sudden outbreak may reach the levels of the 2014 ebola virus outbreak. The fears of global pandemics are constant. Seeing as the virus can be carried through air borne  transmission China is rethinking its large public festivities. Africa and the Middle East have not seen cases of coronavirus so far. The only way to combat the spread of deadly diseases is to increase the level of healthcare around the world. If not the spread of an viral disease could be similar to the influenza pandemic of 1918. It is uncertain the total amount of  deaths caused by the outbreak. 

Faure Gnassingbe Will Run in the Togolese Presidential Election

President Faure Gnassingbe will run for another term despite protests and the political opposition. Since 1967,  the Gnassingbe family has been in power in Togo. The country has similarities with Syria and North Korea in regards to  the head of state has their children be successors. Parliament approved constitutional revision, which mean that Faure Gnassingbe could stay in power up until 2030. The presidency in Togo has five year terms,but there is no indication that Gnassingbe would willingly give up power with the end of  the term. Certain countries may make a leader president for life. With the change in the constitution this may be a means of enabling President Faure Gnassingbe to remain in power indefinitely. As long as he maintains support of the military and the Union for the Republic  Party his political survival is guaranteed. However, growing  public resentment could possibly cause his downfall. So far, there is little condemnation from the European countries or the US. The reason is that Togo may become more important in relation to counter terrorism efforts. Nigeria and Burkina Faso are confronting violence from the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb, and Boko Harem. The presence of such groups could be used as an excuse to silence opposition or legitimize authoritarian leaders. The reason President Faure Gnassingbe still has support is the fear of what occurs in neighboring countries. A mix of discord and repression can only result in post-election violence.        

Sultan Siad Qaboos Passed Away

Oman lost their longest serving monarch . Previously, Sultan Qaboos  left the country for medical treatment. It has not been confirmed, but it was suggested he was suffering from cancer. His death marks the end of  some of the region's longest serving rulers. Since 1970, he led Oman  through a region that was constantly in conflict. The war of attrition wit Israel, the Lebanese Civil War, the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, and the 2003 Iraq War were events that he witness during his political career. The question remains who will be his successor ? The sultan never married or had children. This may result in a crisis of succession. Oman unlike its neighbors was able to avoid the turbulence of the Arab Spring. The reason for Sultan's Qaboos' popularity was that he used oil revenue to develop the country. Modernization and a neutral foreign policy characterized his reign. There were problems in regards to press freedom and the silencing of political dissent. Oman acted as a mediator between both Iran and the United States in 2013 . This was helpful in launching  the Iran nuclear agreement in 2015. Oman is critical in reducing tensions between Iran and the US. With current conflagrations, the next sultan will have to be skilled in diplomacy. If the successor is not able to handle escalating tensions between the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia then Oman's security may be at risk. The death of Sultan Siad Qaboos marks the end of an era in Omani history.    

The Death of Qasem Soleimani and How Iran Might Seek Retaliation

The assassination of  Iranian  general Qasem  Soleimani  has brought condemnation from the international community. Some have wondered what was the reason for such a violent response from the US. Some speculated that war is coming soon and the US wants to downgrade Iran's ability to fight. Some  American politicians have suggested that it is a distraction to corruption in the Trump presidency. What ever the case may be Iran will respond. It has a few options in other countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. US military bases would be targeted. It would be unlikely that a terrorist attack would be conducted on US soil. Iran is one of the regions biggest military powers next to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US has caused more controversy by engaging in a policy of  targeted assassination. Turkey wants to assert itself more in the region and if conflict were to break out it would be involved. Turkish military  involvement has already occurred in Syria and Iraq. The death of Qasem Soleimani only complicates matters in a volatile region .