Idriss Deby the New African Union Chairman

Idriss Deby the President of Chad has been elected AU chairman. He is taking over from Robert Mugabe. This should not be interpreted as a step in the right direction. The Chadian leader has ruled since 1990 and has been notorious for his cooperation with the French. The purpose of the African Union is to secure the continent from external forces bent on colonization and to promote cross regional development. President Deby's credentials as a Pan-Africanist are questionable. Robert Mugabe who has developed much respect for his efforts against Apartheid and British influence in Southern Africa made him an excellent choice. This development has put into question the true motives of the organization itself. If the African Union wants to be a force for positive change, it must elect chairmen who have the dedicated goal of challenging neocolonialism and military strikes on the continent. The War on Terror is being used as an excuse for the West to comeback to Africa with military force. Deby has a past that should be scrutinized. Idriss Deby has been involved closely with France, fought wars of proxy in Sudan, and has maintained the authoritarian structure of his predecessors.
      The Chadian Civil War had created complications internally and externally. Chad was faced with French intervention and a conflict with Libya over the Aouzou Strip. Libya and Chad never were able to mediate a solution to border disputes. The United States also got involved in the Chadian Civil War supporting the Habre Hissene regime. This was part of a general anti-Qaddafi policy that the Ronald Reagan administration adopted in the 1980's. Idriss Deby during this time was commander in chief of the armed forces. He had been part of the military since the 1970's. Deby went to France to receive  military training in 1976. He was able to earn his pilots license Idriss Deby returned to a country still in conflict around 1978. He was ambitious and wanted a role in government. Deby decided to support Habre, because at the time it seemed as if he was going to take power. This came to fruition in 1982. Idriss Deby's military successes allowed him to build support in both the army and the government. Idriss Deby once more went to France to participate in a senior officers training program. This was at the Ecole Superieure de Guerre. The nature of the civil war and the conflict with Libya began to change. Togo was able to mediate a solution, which the Organization for African Unity failed to do on multiple attempts. Libya and Chad issues a joint statement in 1988 that both were willing to negotiate over the Aouzou Strip, rather than continue the war. This put Deby in a vulnerable position politically. He had distinguished himself through the war and an end of hostilities could mean the loss of political power. Hissene Habre and Idriss Deby's political alliance was beginning to crumble. Idriss Deby was accused of plotting a coup in 1989. It is unclear if this was a false accusation by Habre  or an unsuccessful attempt by Deby to forcibly take power.
       Idriss Deby fled to Sudan. There in the Darfur region he began amassing an army to invade Chad . Deby returned to the country with a force of 2000 troops and drove Habre from N'Djamena. Idriss Deby was now firmly in control. November of 1990 brought Chad into a new era of authoritarian rule . France a country that had supported Habre, abandoned him. As long as a regime was strong enough to maintain stability and uphold French neocolonial designs, it was acceptable. Before there was an attempt to balance ethnic disputes, but Habre toward the end of his rule favored his Daza ethnic group. Deby being a Zaghawa was vexed at this act of discrimination. It is ambiguous what was Deby's reasoning in visiting Libya. It has been alleged that he was getting training and support for his assault on the Habre regime. Deby was either informing Qaddafi of Habre's troop movements or hoping to gain the Libyan leader's support. The main objective could have been to show that a Deby presidency  was no threat to Libya.

Deby giving a speech in 1990 

 Doing this would ensure Deby could attack without a Libyan reaction. The United States would not react because a powerful Chad could be used against Libya. France would continue to help Deby more so than the United States. Idriss Deby was firmly in power, but still had to deal with rebel groups. The new president promised a new era of reform. Deby began to revert to the previous autocratic power structure. The system was beginning to favor his own ethnic group and a network of patronage. Idriss Deby declared in 1991 that he would allow opposition parties to register. This move was more so a method of preventing a mass uprising that could descend into civil war. The southern region of  Chad caused the most trouble for the neophyte regime. Protests occurred, which were the result of austerity measures, increasing tax rates, layoffs, and decrease in salaries. The salary reduction vexed both civil servants and members of the military. International human rights organizations started to take notice of Chad's general deterioration. Coup attempts and rebellions were increasing rapidly. A new constitution was drafted in 1994 that permitted multiparty democracy to end dissent. Deby released political prisoners to demonstrate that reform was taking place. The reality was that he was presenting the illusion of change. Even though a referendum allowed for the approval of the constitution in 1996, Idriss Deby won the presidential election. His party would then dominate the legislative elections in 1997. International observers claimed that the elections were free and fair, but this can be disputed.

He has never lost an election. This was a case of double standards that the West imposes on other countries.It is quick to attack countries that are not compliant with their policies, but praise authoritarian leaders that pursue Western objectives. Idriss Deby was reelected in 2001 again with accusations of electoral fraud. There was another referendum which abolished term limits to the presidency. This made Idriss Deby more powerful than ever. The opposition parties boycotted both the 2006 and 2011 elections. The staged elections may have placated some, but rebel resistance continued. Life for the average Chadian did not improve. Funds which could have been used for development were going to the military to fight rebel groups. Food assistance, infrastructure development, and education are being ignored. Decades of warfare has damaged Chadian society.Chad in the 1990s was in a turbulent state, but regionally and internationally the political situation was becoming more complicated. 

     The 9/11 attacks dramatically changed Chad's position. The United States became interested in Chad once more. The highest level of aid from the US was in the 1980s. Around 1995 the aid dropped significantly,due to the fact it looked like Chad was developing a more cordial relationship with Libya. Libya accepted the International Court of Justice ruling in 1994 and relinquished claims in the Aouzou Strip. Idriss Deby and Muammar  Qaddafi spent the 1990s repairing relations between their two countries. Libyan aid could replace the disappearing American aid. The two countries needed each other. Libya was under sanctions and Chad needed stable allies to counter rebel groups both in and outside the country. Relations with Sudan were becoming intense. The conflict in Darfur spread across the border, straining diplomatic relations. Chad has since the early 2000s been an essential part of the US counter terrorism operations in Africa. This was a new era for the Deby presidency, because now he could do violent acts with little international condemnation. The unique aspect of the regime is that it can adopt and survive in numerous unfavorable circumstances. Between 2003 and 2010 one of these cases emerged with a conflict with Sudan. Omar al-Bashir and Idriss Deby accused each other of fueling insurgencies. Both nations have had a long history of civil war and ethnic conflict. This matter became more awkward considering both countries had diplomatic relations with Libya. The Sudanese Civil War drew Chad into another long term military engagement. Thae nature of it was different this time. Idriss Deby came close to being deposed on several occasions. France  intervened in 2005 and 2008 to stop the advance of rebel factions and keep Deby in power. France sees Deby as a regional asset than must not be lost. Under Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande  Chad was becoming a place that could be used in French military operations across the continent. Chad has gradually attempted to move away from sole dependence on France. Yet, Idriss Deby has no problem using them when necessary.  Chad enjoyed military equipment from Libya and political support. It is believed that since 1989 Libya supported Idriss Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement. France and the United Sates still labelled Libya as a pariah, but Chad was able to avoid being sanctioned by those powers. After Libya renounced its nuclear programs, the West lifted sanctions. The year 2004 gave Deby the chance to avoid choosing sides if war was to breakout between the US, France, and Libya. This challenge was later brought up with the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya. Chad was in reality had no desire for the fall of Qaddafi. This would mean a loss of a source of aid Chad could call upon. Previously, Chad had secured restored relations with Sudan over issues surrounding Darfur and the Rally For Democratic Forces.Qaddafi acted as a mediator in restoring relations between Chad and Sudan. The two nations opened their embassies up again in 2006. Omar al-Bashir even attended Deby's presidential inauguration.

This was a success for stability and the fact it was an agreement engineered by African leaders caused alarm in the West. African solutions to African problems are not in the interests of the US and EU block. Either there is the goal to remove leaders who show independence or create new puppets. The United States has been working on the project of creating a puppet to enforce the War on Terror in the Sahel. The Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initiative has Chad as a major partner in America's war against terrorism. America's flawed foreign policy put it in a state of indefinite warfare and legitimized US support for human rights abusing regimes. Idriss Deby could now use the excuse that he was "fighting terrorism" when confronting anyone who disagreed with him politically. The 9/11 attacks were helpful to authoritarian presidents in Africa aligned with the US. Sudan has to maintain positive relations with Chad, due to the fact Darfur is still in revolt and there are tensions in South Sudan. The new nation could descend into civil war causing Sudan to react. Omar al-Bashir needs allies and Idriss Deby can provide some level of protection.The TSCI ensures that Deby will remain secure from a possible strike from the West or the US.  

       The NATO intervention in Libya, China's diplomatic overtures, and a more aggressive US has altered Idriss Deby's calculus. The assassination of Qaddafi shocked and disgusted many African leaders. Idriss Deby has in a sense, been put in a precarious situation. Terrorist groups and militias are waging war, while there are two rival governments. Libya has become a failed state similar to Somalia. An unstable Libya is a threat to Chad. If this disorder functions anything like the Sudan conflict in 2003, rebel groups will enter Chad. Deby was probably in private, vexed that NATO caused the destabilization in Libya. Publicly, another message was conveyed. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the time claimed that Chad was still supporting Qaddafi. While Chad denied this it was alleged that Chadians came into Libya to fight on Qaddafi's behalf. The Western media referred to them "as African mercenaries." These were not mercenaries, because they were sent on the behalf of Idriss Deby. Idriss Deby has stated that Chad would never be compliant with the ICC. He stated during the NATO war  that he would not execute the ICC order to arrest Qaddafi or any other Libyan official. Idriss Deby's reasons for this are not entirely altruistic. He realized that it is possible that he could face such indictments. Secondly, the court lacks legitimacy if non-white nations are targeted specifically for their disagreements over Western foreign policy. The destruction of Libya was not a success for the Deby regime. The only positive result is a factor that is speculative. As the years advance, the US will be come more dependent on the Idriss Deby presidency. He could get more US weapons and money, which means Chad will become more powerful. Chad's neighbors could interpret this as a threat. Chad has been getting stronger regionally by intervening in other countries. Chad was involved in Mali assisting the French in fighting terrorist groups coming from Libya. Chad has been used as a base for both France and the United States. Chad intervened in Nigeria in attempt to disrupt Boko Haram. Chadian troops entered Dikwa a small town and killed up to 200 fighters. These intrusions seem rare, but they are bound to continue. Nigeria is not the only country of  Chadian military involvement or operations, but also the African Central Republic. The Seleka rebel uprising in the African Central Republic was facilitated by Chad. Francois Bozize was deposed and the country has been in a state of chaos. The irony was that Chadian troops were part of the UN peace keeping force in the African Central Republic.Niger has not faced any Chadian activity as of yet, but it could be a possibility. Chad's relations with China add a larger global context. China began bilateral relations with Chad in 1972. Relations were broken when Chad decided to recognize Taiwan in 1997. Chad later reversed this policy. Since that change in policy, China continues to invest in Chad.  

The oil sector has become an area of interest to China. There still is a dilemma for Chad. For the last eight years the US and China are on the brink of possible confrontation. President Obama's Asia Pivot and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea have created a rift between Washington and Beijing. These two powerful nations may force Chad to choose a political block. Just like the the situation with Libya and the West Chad would again have to navigate fluctuating international relations. China and the US are in a state of indirect conflict, exacerbated by America's desire for global hegemony. Africa, Asia, and Latin America could be swept up in this Cold War like scenario.Chad has to navigate through the intricacies of changing alliances. China has advanced in Africa further than America. The reason African nations may prefer cooperation with China is that they do not have neocolonial ambitions. There are no demands for African nations to adopt communist principles or Chinese culture. The US and the EU block expects that non-western countries adopt their political systems and culture. Even though the US supports oppressive regimes, it does attempt to impose certain values to appear to up hold the myth of being the leader of the "free world." Meek suggestions are given to close allies, but fall on deaf ears. Idriss Deby never intends to reform and US suggestions will make him more recalcitrant. There have been issues with China and Chad in business dealings.  Chad cancelled Chinese permits in 2014 due to environmental violations by the Chinese oil company CNPC. The exploration permits allow companies to find new drilling sites in the country. Chad however, will not allow environmental degradation by foreign companies. The fine was estimated to be about 1.2 billion dollars. Thanks to Chinese business in the country Chad has used funds to modernize the army, build public infrastructure,  and establish more roads. Unfortunately, the average Chadian citizen has not benefited from these economic investments. The National Chinese Petroleum Company refused to pay the fine and there was a large dispute. Chad even went to the Commercial Court to file a suit. Chad has been allowing companies to do oil exploration since 2003, but the relations with China have been challenging. Chadian oil workers also had disputes with Chinese companies over working conditions and salaries. Idriss Deby will not allow this to continue, because it is a threat to his regime. The image he wants to present is one of all powerful master and another nation violating laws will be punished. Xi Jingping has realized this problem could rupture the relationship between a strategic partner in Africa. Idriss Deby met Xi Jingping in October of 2015 to discuss aid assistance.  This was for the China Poverty Reduction and Development Forum. There were several agreements made in the areas of telecommunications, agriculture, energy cooperation, industrial park development, infrastructure, and programs to prevent desertification. Economic ties, education, and job training were emphasized . This is an attempt to apologize for past blunders of Chinese oil companies. Considering the reaction to China's reaction to the recognition of Taiwan and then reversal, relations can be erratic. Idriss Deby knows that his survival is based on the number of internal and external alliances he can make. When one relationship deteriorates, another can take its place. The problem with this method is unpredictability. Nations which have their leadership change every few years means that Idriss Deby has to adjust constantly. A presidential election occurring in the US could mean a positive or negative outcome for his regime .  Secretary of State John Kerry has continued his predecessor's Africa policies. An aggressive posture on the across Africa has been pushed forward, with the hopes that Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya will assist in US goals. Chad has been doing this for at least  a decade. The fear that Idriss Deby has is that his Western partners could betray him in the future. The United States has been notorious for disposing of leaders that it no longer finds useful. Joseph Mobutu who ruled Zaire was abandoned by Washington. Deby was president already seven years when he saw the fall of the Mobutu regime. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US became less dependent on authoritarian regimes enforcing its foreign policy on other continents. This means there is no survival guarantee the United States use to promise. Idriss Deby has constantly reoriented Chad depending on the circumstances. Another major foreign policy rearrangement is just developing. 

           Idriss Deby by the early 2010's realized that the West was not as reliable. It was clear that after the NATO and the continued ICC warrant for Omar Al-Bashir adjustments had to be made to prevent Chad from being the next victim of regime change. Deby is a survivor, because he knows how to improvise. The internal opposition has not been destroyed completely. To deal with them he turned to the Middle East. Chad has sought to create stronger relations with Saudi Arabia for a number of reasons. The first is it can help with the elimination of the Rally for Democratic Forces and other armed groups seeking his overthrow. If Chad can convince Saudi Arabia that the opposition is part of a network of terrorism, he can finally end these organizations once and for all. The resistance has been weakened over the past decade, but never fully evaporated. Saudi Arabia's military power has been increasing with extensive involvement in Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria. Although aligned to the West, King Salman is pursuing a policy that is more aggressive than Washington wants. This could even lead to war with Iran. This regional power would be another buttress for Idriss Deby , if and when France or the US attempt to abandon him. 

Sudan has realized that Saudi Arabia can also provide a shield from its enemies. As a result it is now participating in military operations in Yemen. It would be no surprise if Chad, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia form a much larger military alliance. Idriss Deby by doing so, hopes to see military victories further legitimize his long term rule and decimate enemies at home. The excuses of fighting terrorism can be used to justify autocratic rule in Chad. Simultaneously, it can silence critics and political dissidents. Idriss Deby now has many countries he can manipulate for aid and support. Not all are completely reliable. He plays China and the US off against one another, while providing bases for France and as a net of safety  will use Saudi Arabia. Survival comes first and everything else is second.  

      Looking at Idriss Deby's political career, there are reasons why he should not be AU chairman. His connections to France and now more so the United States are troubling. It seems as if he will be ruling Chad and directing the AU on their behalf. The African Union should stand for independence, solidarity, anti-colonialism, and Pan-African values. Idriss Deby does not believe or embody any of these convictions. The treatment of his fellow Chadians and his neighbors reveals he is opposed to these values. His main objective is to increase his political power and Chad's at the expense of others. It appears he will continue to rule for decades, becoming more powerful. Promises of internal reform are vanishing under military incursions into Nigeria, Cameroon, and Mali. These wars enable former colonial masters to reenter the continent and have a permanent military presence. An AU chairman must be the enemy and challenger to Western domination. Most importantly, they must not only focus on stopping US-EU operations in Africa, but undermine it across the world. President Deby vacillates on certain positions when it suits his own agenda. Idriss Deby could send the AU down a more dangerous path. He has no problem intervening in other African countries and this could lead to a much larger expansion of AU troops in other areas. The AU mission in Somalia has created much controversy. The Burundi crisis could be exacerbated further if Idriss Deby presses for deployment. Chad will see an surge in influence across Africa. Robert Mugabe was best suited for the role due to his ideology and his long record of challenging Western imperialism. Idriss Deby uses Western imperialism to his advantage. He has stayed in power for two decades by deceit and perceptive cunning. Exploiting every alliance has allowed him to become a permanent fixture in the African political landscape. Considering that Idriss Deby is much younger than previous chairmen, he will remain at that post for sometime. If this is so, the AU will morph into a tool to advance agendas of  world powers. It is uncertain how this will alter the path of Africa, but for now Idriss Deby is the ne AU chairman.   

Sources 

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