What to Expect From China and Taiwan Meeting

Since 1949, Chinese and Taiwanese leaders have not maintained positive diplomatic relations. When the Kuomintang was defeated and Chiang Kai-Shek established the Republic of Taiwan relations with the mainland have been hostile. A long civil war that lasted from 1927 to 1949 left much political national division. Mao Zedong declared the People's Republic of China in October 1949 under the rule of the Chinese Communist Party. The confrontation between the Kuomintang and the CCP  predated the Cold War, but China and Taiwan would be drawn into Cold War tension. The US would support Taiwan with military aid and engage in acts of sabotage against Mao's China. Chiang Kai-Shek would become a Cold War ally and was determined to retake the mainland. With the end of the Chinese Civil War, there still was not peace. Conflicts emerged in a series of clashes over various islands from 1954 to 1955 and again in 1958. These were known as the Taiwan Straits incidents. As the 20th century drew to a close, China abandoned Maoism, embraced a market system, and emerged as a world power. Even though the Cold War has ended, there still is enmity between China and Taiwan. It has been 66 years of tension and conflict. It will take some time to foster cordial diplomatic relations. This will not be immediate. What China wants to do is draw Taiwan out of the influence of the United States. Taiwan sees that China is a rising power, with an economy it wants access to. Improving relations with Taiwan is pivotal, because the US has been directing its Asia pivot policy toward containing China. This meeting between Xi Jingping and  Ma Ying-Jeou  can serve as a symbol. Although Asian nations differ in their politics, they can collaborate on resolving common challenges. The major challenge is the growing US presence in Asia Pacific, which is creating division among nations in the region.
       Xi Jingping and Ma Ying-Jeou met in Singapore. There are some obstacles to the talks. Taiwan sees its self as an independent nation-state, while the mainland wants to reunite with it. The People's Republic of China views it as a seceding province. There has been some improvement in relations, even collaboration in trade, tourism, and economic pacts. Since 2008 there has been a gradual effort to bring the two feuding nations to reconcile. The first high level talks were held around 1993, yet there are still issues. One sensitive issue was the South China Sea disputes. This was deliberately avoided during the talks.The reason for China's immediate urge to meet with Taiwan may be due to US provocations in the South China Sea. The US claims it is trying to defend the right of free navigation, but the geopolitical situation challenges this statement. The Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam could be forming an anti-China US lead coalition. China most likely fears that Taiwan would be added to this emerging coalition. Cognizant of the previous straits incidents in the 20th century, discussing the South China Sea would complicate matters. The relationship between Taiwan and the US is a strange one. While the US does recognize the People's Republic of China, it still remains committed to defending Taiwan. However, Taiwan does not want to be a client state of the US or a tool in  its foreign policy. Ma Ying-Jeou  as president realized this meeting had to happen despite much protest from the Taiwanese public. The choice for Taiwan is not an allegiance between China or the US, but a path way to establish an independent foreign policy.

Xi Jingping is attempting to stop a developing image of China as a regional hegemon. Seeing as China's political and economic power is growing observers assume that it will be more threatening. China has become more assertive, but it was induced by growing US presence in Asia. Another issue facing the talks is how to get both the Chinese and Taiwanese public to accept  these changes in relations. For years there has been propaganda distributed to the public and reversing this will be an arduous task. Taiwan's image of China was the belligerent Communist state seeking expansion through out Asia. China presented Taiwan as a puppet state of US foreign policy. These perceptions are extreme exaggerations, but persist. This meeting between the two presidents prove that there has been significant progress, yet expectations should not be too high. Discussion is only the first step in the process of normalization between nations.    

     There should be realistic expectations from observers of this diplomatic contact. There will not be immediate cordial attitudes. This will have to be fostered over a long period of time. The past cannot be forgotten and the tension is still present. After World War II there was an attempt to form a unity government, to stop the Chinese Civil War from continuing.Losing Japan as a common enemy meant that there was no reason to hold peace talks between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang. Publicly, it appeared as if Mao and  Kai-Shek were willing to negotiate. This was not to happen and hostilities continued. Seeing this parallel in history, there should be caution in regards to Presidents Xi Jingping and Ma  Ying-Jeou. Beijing and Taipei may be collaborators in one circumstance and enemies in another. 

Many with the more optimistic perspective refer to this diplomatic exchange as historic. It is premature to say that a new chapter has been initiated. The question regarding Taiwan as rebellious province or nation-state will not be answered anytime soon. Taiwan has seen itself as a separate country to be given a Hong Kong like status. China may just have to accept that it will remain free from its control and no longer one of its territories. There may be more progress made in economic affairs. This could be a major driving force behind for improving relations. It would be wise to develop a bilateral relationship between Taiwan and China. China has one of the world's biggest economies. Although there is slow down in growth, this is an opportunity for Taiwan. While there may be more cooperation in terms of economics, political matters will be more difficult. Taiwan's political atmosphere can be divided into parties that favor reunification and others that desire to maintain independent status. China is a one-party state, but there are factions who do not want to see the nation open normal relations. The Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan was the first to break the KMT monopoly of the presidency in the year 2000. The KMT captured the presidency from Chen Snui-Bian in 2008. Ma Ying- Jeou  has been president since and has pursued a principle of mutual nondenial. This is not official foreign policy, but describes the relations between China and Taiwan. Both countries do not recognize each other, therefore complicating arguments in regards to national sovereignty in the Taiwan straits.This special state to state relationship can be viewed as actions in one state, rather than two separate entities. Reunification seems impossible, considering Taiwan now sees itself as an independent nation. There was even a referendum proposed to officially refer to the Republic of China as Taiwan in 2007. There will be more economic collaboration, but political alliances seem ou of reach. 

     It is premature to call this a historic or radical change in direction, but it can serve as a symbol. This meeting can be used as a symbol of a revived Pan-Asianism. Here two Asian nations considered mortal enemies are attempting to make peace. Asian problems can only be solved by Asian countries, not by external powers. If this attempt at normalization is successful, it may bring hope to the tension between North and South Korea. The Korean situation has proven far worse. It could escalate given the current geopolitical conditions. China and Taiwan's contact in Singapore could be used as a model to solve issues before they reach the point of warfare. Xi Jingping and Ma Ying Jeou should use this to advance a large cause of stability and unity through out Asia. If Taiwan can meet with a one-party communist state, then South Korea should at least take it into consideration. This would be more difficult seeing as North Korea still functions on a Soviet model of  communism. China made market reforms, which has caused social problems, but it did open the country up to others economically and diplomatically. China could influence North Korea and Taiwan could do the same with South Korea. Establish a framework that reduces hostilities and fear is the only option if Asia is to advance in the 21st century. The risk may be a large South East Asian regional war, which would attract intervention by Western powers. The possibility of being recolonized is a reality. This time it will not be from the UK, France, Germany, or the Netherlands, but the United States. 

       One major motivation for this meeting was the changing geopolitics induced by the Asia Pivot policy. China and Asian nations are being threatened by US military build-up in the Asia Pacific region. The US is sending more troops to Australia and has a military presence in the Philippines, South Korea, including Japan. These nations were close Cold War allies and essential to the Vietnam War effort. Taiwan never has hosted US military bases. During the Cold War it did receive support, but never would allow itself to become a client of the United States.  Now, Vietnam seems positioned to join this new anti-China coalition. The danger here is the development of rival alliance systems. This could tear the region apart. Division among Asian nations serves US foreign policy objectives. The United States wants to remain the sole superpower in  the world and China could potentially rival it in the future.Encircling China gives the US a head start, if  war is started. Recent incidents that occurred in the South China Sea are a delicate balancing act. The US claims China has violated the freedom of navigation. China has been in border and sea disputes before, but rarely did the US become vociferous. The interest was developed by the possibility of  oil reserves deep in the sea. The US wants control of most of the globe's oil reserves and has developed a foreign policy around that objective. Therefore, the US has gradually attempted to change and present China as a threat to global security. Considering US military actions in Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria this claim is spurious. Asian nations who align with the US see their national sovereignty diminish, while their governments become clients to US regional demands. Asian countries should resist falling into a network of rival alliance systems. Taiwan has appeared to see the potential danger and is trying a different approach. This may lead to treating China less like an enemy and  the easing of tensions. 

      The result of the Taiwan and China meeting could be improved economic collaboration. Political obstacles are too numerous that normalization of relations will not happen soon. Questions regarding Taiwan's status still are a hindrance to talks. The argument by some is that it is a seceding province and others assert it is an independent state. The problem becomes complicated further by the South China Sea. Just like the Taiwan straits incidents, China has caused anger among its neighbors with the construction of artificial islands. Border disputes and access to the seas are common problems for formally colonized countries. The only solution is through diplomacy and more importantly a revival of   Pan-Asian solidarity. As a region, Asia shares similar challenges. This requires cooperation not competition  among countries. There is a common belief  held in US foreign policy circles that America should act as a balance to China in Asia. This modern day white man's burden should be discarded, because Asia as a continent spent half a century fighting for national liberation. The US should not be trusted due to its past actions in Korea, Vietnam, and the atomic attack on Japan. The end of the Cold War brought major geographic and political shifts. China and Taiwan are now are attempting to move past that troubling legacy. It will take much diligence and effort, but it is necessary given the volatile atmosphere of international affairs.