Omar al-Bashir has been reelected president of Sudan. The opposition boycotted the election citing extreme irregularities. The fact that a country has elections is not evidence of democracy. Bashir is a divisive and controversial figure, but the West has an ulterior motives in criticizing the regime. Sudan and South Sudan have an immense amount of oil reserves, which oil companies want to exploit. The West is certain that it would be easier to do if Bashir was removed from power. There is no question that Omar al-Bashir was responsible for atrocities in the Second Sudanese Civil War. However, the ICC indictment has a clear political motivation. Isolating and threatening Sudan has nothing to do with human rights. It is another attempt to control valuable natural resources, while simultaneously challenging China. Since 1989 Omar al-Bashir's regime has remained stalwart, despite external pressures and geopolitical confrontation.
Sudan's diplomatic isolation started in 1997. Around this time all US aid was ended and relations declined rapidly. Sudan's relations with Arab nations were not any better. Internally, the nation was struggling with civil war that started in 1983. Omar al-Bashir when he came to power attempted a settlement with John Garang of the SPLA. The Sudan People's Liberation Army had been fighting for national self-determination and independence from the North Sudan. Another peace agreement was attempted in 1993. Meetings were held in Abuja,Nigeria and Nairobi, Kenya. These meetings did not produce any results. The Revolutionary Command Council disbanded and there was a return to civilian rule. Bashir was still in control and the military still had major influence on government. Omar al-Bashir was now facing developing tension with Uganda. Yoweri Museveni accused Sudan of arming the Lord's Resistance Army. Omar al-Bashir accused Uganda of assisting the SPLA. During all this complication rebel factions were fighting each other in South Sudan.
The current political boundaries
There were a multitude of armed groups in the South of Sudan. This included the South Sudan Independence Movement, Bahr el-Ghazal, the Equatoria Defense Force, Bor group, United Sudanese African Parties, and the Independence Movement. Ethiopia was getting involved in Sudan to stop the flow of refugees into their territory. Through out the 1990s it appeared as if Sudan was crumbling.
While internal balkanization continued, the US found this as a perfect opportunity to reassert its presence in the region. The United States gave the SPLA $10,000,000 in 2001. Sudan was already under US sanctions and this provocative move raised suspicion. The only reason that US would support the SPLA was the hope that it would weaken the Omar al-Bashir regime. The goal was to see a divided and fragile Sudan that was simple to manipulate. The SPLA was known to commit atrocities just like the government in Kharthoum. As the 2000s progressed Omar al-Bashir was remolded by the international mass media to seem solely responsible for conflict in Sudan. The conflict started before he came to power, but that fact did not matter. The western public was fed images of an autocratic leader doing heinous acts. The Neur and Dinka ethnic tension was either down played or ignored completely by the western media. The janjaweed militia's atrocities were well documented, but the actions of the Darfur Liberation Front were absolved. Omar al-Bashir was unable and unwilling to address the grievances of the non-Arab population of Darfur. The Sudan Liberation Movement and Justice and Equality Movement declared war and hostilities erupted in 2003. Omar al-Bashir now found himself with an International Crimes Court indictment and a civil war expanding in the west and south of Sudan.
President Bashir had very few allies regionally, but China provided economic and diplomatic assistance. Relations with Chad deteriorated due to border issues around the Darfur region. Libya did remain a trading partner with Sudan, but was not willing to engage in military interventions on Bashir's behalf. Ethiopia was still frustrated with the influx of refugees. Uganda was still suspicious of Sudanese intentions. China began oil exploration in Sudan around 2001. The Talisman Oil Corporation transformed the Sudanese economy. Revenue was being raised rapidly, allowing the government in Khartoum to continue other projects. The negative repercussion was that it was also financing the war. China's policy is not to influence internal policy, but to recognize the government and collaborate on certain matters. When South Sudan became independent China chose to recognize it. It still has positive relations with Sudan. It tries not to involve itself in internal matters. EU countries and the US support South Sudan even when Salva Kiir has authoritarian tendencies. Omar al-Bashir's regime came under more scrutiny after the 2001 terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center. Osama Bin Laden was in the country in the 1990s. The US accused Omar al-Bashir of supporting international terrorism. He attempted to reconcile with the United States and cooperate on counter-terrorism measures. The US rejected this and continued sanctions. The Bush administration even hinted of possible military intervention in Sudan. It is clear that at some point the West wants regime change.
Omar al-Bashir currently remains firmly in power. His removal is sought by the West. There have been points in which there was internal opposition. When the government announced cuts to food and fuel subsidies it induced a wave of protests. Since the year 2000, the Bashir regime abandoned strict sharia law as the sole basis of its legal system. Hassan Turabi objected to this vociferously. This was a major challenge, because he is considered one of the most important religious and political figures in the country. Turabi is now imprisoned for fear that he might lead a rebellion. Although a political prisoner, he still is a potential threat. For the past two decades Bashir has held on to power under conditions of disorder and dissent. Sudan from an international affairs context represents another growing conflict. The US and EU countries are trying to stop China's economic and diplomatic advance in Africa. China uses methods of negotiation to promote its interests. The US and EU block uses military force and sanctions to conquer sovereign nations. Libya was a target and it is likely that Sudan will be next. The region has already been weakened by decades of war, ethnic conflict, and poverty. Omar al-Bashir is not capable in terms of leadership to improve his country or find a solution to a stable regional framework. If Sudan collapses, the rest of Africa is vulnerable to western aggression.
Further Reading
Arnold, Guy. Africa: A Modern History. London: Atlantic Books, 2005.
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