Stephen Hawking on Knowledge

The Spread of International Instability

The world has become more chaotic due to the actions of the United States and European Union block. International instability can be seen through the rapid increase in war zones, economic turmoil, and the mass migration of refugees. Other world powers in response to US-EU interference respond with subversion. It is possible that the Global South could be caught in a power struggle between two power blocks. However, this would mirror a Cold War scenario, which is not an accurate analysis. Describing the power struggles between two power blocks does not show the immense power shift and complex relationships emerging in a world that is moving in the direction of multipolar international politics. China is an emerging international force and Russia has returned to a level of power not seen since the Soviet era. These countries are not a threat to the world as long as they do not seek imperial aspirations. The EU states and the US want to remain the undisputed controllers of the world functioning on a framework of neocolonialism. Peace, freedom, and democracy is the rhetoric that is used to justify military involvement abroad. The ulterior motive is for the US to remain the sole superpower indefinitely and the former European colonial empires to reassert their dominance in Africa and Asia. The only practical solution for a safe and functional globe would be to recognize the new multipolar world dynamic. If such a revelation or change does not occur the world will face mass global conflict or possible societal collapse. International instability by definition is political, social, and economic tumult propagating between various nation states. 

         The war zones of the globe have expanded in Asia, Africa, and may reach Latin America. The United States and Russia are involved in a war of proxy in the Syrian Civil War. The US claims that it is reducing combat troops in Iraq, but it may merely be moving more into Syria to assist with armed groups . Turkey reacted to this by invading Syrian territory. Afrin was the target and it was clear what the objectives were. Turkey wants to increase its power and influence in the Middle East. Simultaneously Turkey wants to stop the Kurdish movement for independence and destroy the YPG. This has caused tension between both the US and Turkey, but there is one goal both strive for. There still remains a persistent desire to remove President Bashar Al-Assad from power. This is where the disagreement between the two NATO countries becomes problematic. Turkey views a post-Assad Syria should be under its sphere  of influence. This is why Turkey also conducted military operations into northern Iraq. Turkey is embarking on a policy of Neo-Ottomanism. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to see Turkish power grow in areas that were once part of the deceased Ottoman Empire. This does not involve diplomatic engagement, rather direct military intervention into Arab lands. Turkey defends these actions by stating it is fighting ISIS or Kurdish groups that attack the state. Such claims are justification for expansion into the region. The conflicts between Syria, Turkey, ISIS, and YPG become more complicated when Saudi Arabia and Israel are a factor. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia  are indirectly in conflict with Iran. This tension and struggle can be seen in both Yemen and Lebanon These smaller conflict can escalate into a region wide war. It would involve the Gulf monarchies and Israel fighting Iran, which would have devastating consequences. This may also encourage the Kurds to build a state by force arms, West Asia is not the only region on the continent seeing rising conflict. 

East Asia could be another area of regional war. The Trump administration has taken a more belligerent tone in its approach to North Korea. Military drills have been conducted between South Korean and American forces. The US claims this is a preventative measure to stop North Korea's further development of  nuclear weapons. There has been tension between North Korea and the US for half a century, but the reason for the recent anger is directed at China. The harassment of North Korea causes problems for China, which may be the US intention. The Obama administration's pivot to Asia was designed to act as containment of China. While China has not threatened the US or EU countries it is now being treated as a security risk. The true motive is to stop China's rise as a major world power. The Trump administration has made it clear that peace is not part of its policy. Targeting North Korea is an indirect way to harass China. President Donald Trump  early on in his administration contacted President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan. It appeared as if he was about to change his mind on the One China policy. So far, there has not been significant change yet it is possible that there will be as long as relations continue to deteriorate. There is some form of an anti-China coalition developing, which could indicate a possible military conflict in the future. The US has made overtures to India and President Trump has met with Prime Minister  Narendra Modi . This attempt to get closer to India would put pressure on China, which continues to have tension with that country. China has favored Pakistan over India in its foreign policy, but the US wants to challenge the regional status quo. The new Indo-Pacific policy is designed to counter China's influence not just in South Asia, but challenge it in Asian oceans. If the US is pushing for a China and North Korea conflict, this will effect operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are more conflagrations in Afghanistan than in previous years, with a resurgent Taliban and possible ISIS presence. The entire Asian continent could see mass warfare induced by external forces. 

        Africa has seen more conflict and it continues to spread uncontrolled. It is even possible that it could reach other countries that were more stable. Ethiopia is suffering from a political crisis induced by the discrimination of Oromo and Amhara peoples. Limited civil rights and economic turmoil has caused discord. This if not solved could turn into armed conflict similar to South Sudan. East Africa has challenges from Al-Shabab and US drone strikes in Somalia. Although the US in terms of policy no longer considers fighting terrorism a priority, they use the War on Terror to justify any military action around the globe. The African Union Mission to Somalia has failed to form stability in the country which has been in  a state of civil war since 1991. Instability that is present in Somalia attract other African nations who want to extend their influence. Uganda wants to extend its influence beyond its southern border. President Yoweri Museveni wants to ensure his rule extends further than just Uganda by having indirect influence in other African states. Longtime leaders are becoming more paranoid about their political futures with numerous regime changes or removal of other governments. 

The Arab Spring was a misnomer. The uprisings that occurred in North Africa began in Tunisia. This brought more instability to Africa with regime changes in Egypt and Libya. Such changes will only make the more extreme and authoritarian leaders cling to power. Idris Deby the President of Chad has made efforts to secure closer relations with Saudi Arabia. Having other countries provide them aid can ensure their political survival. Togo and Burundi are experiencing internal protests against leaders and their governments. Libya does not have a functional government and resembles a failed state. The year 2016 saw internal conflicts get worse for both Libya and Egypt. Militias, terrorist groups, and paramilitary organizations continue to fight one another. There remain two rival governments one based in Tripoli and the other in Tobruk . Since 2014 the civil war entered a new phase causing even more migrant traffic. The UN proposal for peace was not recognized by other factions. This was between the two major rival factions and the country is still not whole. Egypt experiment with a change in government resulted in the election of Muhammad Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. A coup removed him from office and Abdul Fattah Sisi  came to power. Since his rise in 2013, he has carried out a military campaign against the Sinai. Peninsula. Egypt has essentially reverted back to a Mubarak political model. The difference now is that military action and conflict will increase. Nigeria and Cameroon are embarked on a campaign against Boko Harem. Such military campaigns may not eradicate the group entirely. The Democratic Republic of the Congo still has not achieved a lasting stability with the appearance of the M23 rebels. As longtime African leaders are being replaced or removed from power this only opens the possibility of more warfare. President  Joseph Kabila is now facing new opposition to his rule. He has been president since 2001 and their are fears that possible civil war could beak out if tensions escalate. The African Central Republic has not been stable since the fall of Francois Bozize. The rise of the Seleka rebels has put the country in a state of civil war. Africa needs peace, but with US-EU involvement on the continent. UN peacekeeping missions are not about protecting civilian life, rather  it is a means of  Western powers disguising  their geopolitical intentions. 

       Latin America could find itself subject to aggression. Donald Trump stated that he was considering military action in Venezuela. To most this sounded like a farce, but thinking about it in the context of US-Latin American relations makes it more serious. The United States has for two centuries been invading and intervening in South American nations. This was done under the context of the Monroe Doctrine and later in the 20th century the Roosevelt Corollary. The Cold War caused more military actions in Latin America with the US pursuing a policy of containment. The problem now is that the US wants to maintain dominance in the region and is selecting leftists governments to either be eradicated or neutralized. There has been some progress in the Colombian Civil War with FARC rebels accepting a peace deal in 2016, but there still remains political challenges. The conflict has not officially ended and the economic crisis in Venezuela is spilling over to Colombia. Cuba has been a player in peace negotiations, while the US has for a long period of time supported right-wing paramilitary organizations in the country. The US has attempted to depose the Venezuelan government under the Bush administration. Hugo Chavez and his successor Nicholas Maduro oppose US presence in Latin America. With the death of President Chavez, Maduro was left with the challenges of a struggling economy and a more aggressive US. 

             

   A pillar of the leftist governments was knocked out with the fall of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. Barzil and the rest of Latin America is seeing an increase in crime and internal warfare due to poverty, corruption, racism, as well as external forces. Rousseff's fall brought an end to any possible reform. Brazil continues to struggle more economically and almost looks as if it is reaching a state of open internal warfare. Some even call Rousseff's removal a coup by legal means. Since 2016, Brazilian democracy has slowly  degenerated. President Michel Temer  has now summoned the military to take control of   Rio de Janeiro's police forces . The justification was to fight drug trafficking gangs. The War on Drugs has not only devastated the US, but continues to have negative effects on Latin America. South America has a problem with the rapid increase in narcoterrorism. Drug cartels may become more powerful that governments or the police force. Mexico has in this regard, transformed into what Colombia once was in the 20th century. The combination of internal discord and ongoing conflicts has caused a boost in emigration. The wave of emigration to the US began in the 1980s when the Ronald Reagan administration became more involved in the civil wars occurring in Central America. Mexico today faces security risks from growing drug cartels causing people to flee. The increase in drug crime and narcoterrorism is the result of both US consumption and the effects of globalization. The Donald Trump administration has shown its hostility to South America and Mexico in particular. It has no toleration for Cuba or improving relations, which the Obama administration was attempting to do. Instead the US may use its power to forcibly halt immigration for South America and overthrow leftist governments. Donald Trump's rhetoric about constructing a wall on the US-Mexico border has damaged relations, not only in Mexico but the rest of Latin America. Homicide rates continue to increase in South American nations effected by US interference, economic turmoil, and political factionalism. There are states in Latin America that are becoming closer to the US, even with the rising anti-South American racism in America. Honduras and Guatemala are troubled states that continue to be close to the US. It is clear that President Juan Orlando Hernadez needs the United States to ensure the survival of his rule in Honduras. This demonstrates that Latin America may be returning to that model of government centered around a strongman. The United States has supported regimes of that nature in Latin America and enabled wars to continue for decades in the region. The peril exists that direct US military action could be coming, if indirect interference is no long effective. 

            The world economy's condition can also add to international instability. Europe has not entirely recovered from the debt crisis and the UK's exit from the EU has caused anxiety. There could be a possible trade war with China and the United States only adding to economic tension. China and Russia are clearly becoming rising economic powers. Although Russia is facing sanctions from the United States, Germany still has an economic partnership with Russia. This has protected the Russian Federation, because Germany has gradually become one of Europe's most significant economies. While the West has most of the wealth, Africa and Asia will become more important economically as the 21st century progresses. Africa is rich, yet it is being impoverished by the International Monetary Fund , World Bank , and the neocolonial Western powers. The vast resources of the continent if managed properly could challenge the dominance of the US and European countries. What African countries are doing is establishing economic cooperation with China to counter its former colonizers. A reaction has been generated in which now the US and China are competing economically and geopolitically with one another on the African continent. The conflict for natural resources has cause much conflict. This could only be exacerbated more with the fact that available clean drinking water globally is declining. Water will soon become an important part of the global economy. It may also be the cause of increased warfare. Combined with the competition for oil, this only complicates matters.  

The issues in regards to the South China Sea are  partly based on economics. The possibilities of off shore oil drilling are immense and any country that makes claims to particular areas has a source of revenue. There is the desire to do further exploration,  but tension between China and other Asian nations. The United States wants to stop China's economic and political rise. This explains sudden actions in regards to India and the policy in the Pacific. The new nationalist capitalism that the Trump administration is proposing has a specific goal in mind. It wants to exploit various markets giving the US more advantages in terms of trade, without making obligations to other countries. Neoliberal capitalism is becoming more unstable causing social and political unrest. The United States is in an estimated trillion dollars worth amount of debt. The only reason it remains calm at the moment is that foreign investors have confidence in the US. However, a declining dollar and an uncertain stock market can erode such confidence in America. The system of private central banking at  the moment is fragile. The European Central Bank is seeking to end its stimulus package. The Eurozone has not recovered from the debt crisis and Greece is an example of this economic turmoil. Unemployment and lack of a social safety net are becoming more prevalent. Even when unemployment is low, this may not be a full picture of the state of the workforce. The data does not include people who have stopped looking for work. Another challenge for economy recovery and stability is the issue of wages. If wages remain stagnant, then this will harm the state of the economy. Limited disposable income means that there will be less consumption. Businesses will suffer from a decline in consumers. Corporations will not increase wages unless forced to or by some external change. A business in a free market seeks profit maximization; not the welfare of its employees. Globalization has put the worker at a disadvantage. Outsourcing and limited tariff protections has put workers in a precarious situation. Although the world economy was performing better in 2017 compared to 2010, there remains the challenge of growing debt. This may result in the Eurozone increasing interest rates. There also could be instability coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump's tax reform could cause consequences beyond that of the United States of America. Supply side economics does not stimulate growth, rather it has the wealthy extract more funds from the poor and middle class. The stock market could drop further effecting 401 K  programs. International inflation as a result from this creating an atmosphere of quantitative easing. Simultaneously, the gap between rich and poor will expand dramatically, while there is economic growth. The average citizen will not benefit from this economic growth. Whatever increase in wages they will see could be neutralized if inflation continues. Neoliberal capitalism has become unstable and the global financial crisis  was evidence of that. There is the fear that with the repeal of Obama era regulations, another major financial meltdown will occur.  

       There is a global political crisis. The population has grown more distrustful and vexed at their government. Liberal democracies are in a state of decline. While some have  analysts have claimed it was going to be the dominant model of the world, that theory is being questioned. There is the rise of a xenophobic nativist nationalism. This is not only a challenge to liberal democracy. The xenophobic nativist nationalism wants to challenge globalism which has been an international political movement. It favors economic integration under a neoliberal capitalist model and  political supranationalism. The people of the US and Europe are favoring almost quasi-fascist ideas in a time of uncertainty. Immigration has caused the US and Europe to embrace either white nationalist or extreme far-right political parties. Donald Trump has made his belief system of  xenophobic nativist nationalism spread. Italy, Germany, France, and the UK are experiencing an increase in far-right pressure. Eastern Europe has become for far-right since the end of the Cold War and the rise of the refugee crisis. 

As internal instability occurs in nations of the West, the UN has over the past decades has become more of a tool in the imperial project. The United Nations has not promoted peace, but enabled war. The organization wants to present itself as a humanitarian and democratic value defending body, yet it  is unable to be a solution to world problems. Xenophobic nativist nationalism may be a potential threat to the global peace. The excuse to use military action by European powers may come in the form of stopping emigration traffic from war torn countries. The UN also has adopted the concept of humanitarian intervention. The concept of responsibility to protect is presented as a way to save civilians in war zones. The true motive however, is for some countries to advance their geopolitical agendas. The United Nations implement Resolution 1973  which was essential a declaration of war on Libya in 2011. The use of no fly zones was nothing new. This was done to Iraq for twelve years and sanctions crippled the nation. The UN enables Western powers to engage in human rights abuse under the cover of humanitarian intervention. Imperialists have adopted the language of human rights to practice the same type of behavior. The world is still engaged in a global power struggle rather than reaching a consensus or developing a pathway to collaboration. The UN now instead of working for peace continues to act as an agent for regime change. The resolutions directed at Syria and North Korea are a demonstration of how the UN is still dominated by powerful Western countries. Other states such as Israel are not condemned or sanctioned for their numerous abuses in the West Bank or Gaza Strip. Israel could possibly increase its involvement in Syria and could initiate a war with Iran. Even if a majority of the population rejects such actions, governments around the world continue to start or expand conflict. The inability to solve internal and external problems makes citizens question the ability and competence of their government systems. Democracy is by its nature a chaotic and inefficient system. Direct democracies do not exist for the sole reason it requires populations to be active and rational in their decision making. What the model that is present in the contemporary world is rule by the upper classes. The liberal democracies have evolved into  nothing more than oligarchies. As income inequality grows, more of the population loses power. Voting would be the only defensive mechanism, however this is a limitation due to the selection of candidates running for office. Both parliamentary and presidential systems have the same issues in regards to strong corporate and business influence in politics. Traditional authoritarian regimes may adopt the structures of liberal democracies, but in practice are still oppressive. The only reason there are systems that resemble democracy is because people are not willing to experiment with alternatives. So the world has either fallen into two political models. The corrupt liberal democracies or  traditional authoritarianism . The political devastation can be seen, yet there is a level of social decline. 

      Society has reached a nadir. The political and economic factors of international instability  are gradually destroying  civilization's social fabric. The refugee crisis and the mass migration across the Mediterranean Sea has cause major humanitarian problems. The damaging effects of warfare and regime change has destroyed lives of people residing in the nations under attack. For those who do survive the dangerous journey from the Middle East or Africa, they face more peril in Europe. Refugees and migrants are targets of  right-wing extremists. Refugees could easily be murdered in the European country they decide to flee to. There is also the problem of accommodation of populations of in coming refugees. The rise in detainment centers hold creates an issue due to the fact people are restrained against their will. Seeing as refugees have limited financial resources these centers become a home in a new land. Camps that are not supervised by any government agency or  private organization have emerged. The Calais migrant camp in France became notorious. It had limited sanitation and comfort for the masses of people arriving. French authorities  demolished  the site, but with refugees having no place to go new sites develop. Violence has occurred in migrant camps with other ethnic groups having conflict with one another. Such events only give power the the far-right and contribute to their growing support. Refugees and migrants become a convenient scapegoat for European political struggles. As European leaders fail to provide a solution to the debt crisis, they blame immigrants, migrants, and refugees for social ills. This deflects attention away from their incompetent leadership and corruption. 

There is also another harsh realization. The mass movement of people also contains a possible criminal element. The majority of  refugees are victims, but there also is the risk that there are some people with less admirable intentions. The Cologne New Year's  Eve  attacks   in 2015 put into question the open door policy for refugees in Germany. It was reported that there were a multitude of sexual assaults and according to police mostly from men of Arab or North African descent. The perpetrators were not brought to justice and the media used this as an excuse to condemn all immigrants, refugees, and migrants. Attacks on non-whites increased several days after the Cologne incident. If this plan of taking refugees and migrants so to be functional there has to be some form of security measures. Integration must happen to prevent two societies that emerge in one country. Not doing this creates a society with an oppressed underclass that is racially based. This process has happened in France and the UK. French Algerians have been excluded from the wider society creating conflict among the white citizens. What has emerged out of this migrant crisis is a new vicious European racism. Such hatreds have also emerged due to a Western identity crisis. For centuries the West though its culture and heritage was superior and now it sees the emergence of non-western countries gaining prominence. This is combined with a revival in Christian fundamentalism which is a part of right-wing circles and mobilized politically. This section of the movement has more influence in America which influences policies in regards to Israel and the Middle East region. Religious fundamentalism is a reaction to modernity, scientific advancement, and  periods of discord. Their idea that religion leads to more stable societies is a myth. Religious fundamentalists want to impose one religion on everyone, rather than making it a choice of the individual. Religion and politics are once more collaborating to a devastating effect. The United States that prides itself on separation of church and state constantly wants to promote Christianity as the nation's religion. Irrationality and mob rule have become common characteristics of both the US and EU countries. The embrace of capitalism and military intervention comes at a cost to social services and infrastructure. The divide  between wealth and extreme poverty has gotten larger. As population growth continues it will further strain a fragile situation. Taking away investment in education, healthcare, and other social services will have negative economic effects in the future. 

      Workers will have limited protection in the future. As pensions and a social safety net disappear many will not be able to retire or have enough savings to sustain themselves. The permanent economic underclass will be either unemployed or underemployed no matter how the market is doing. Many children will grow up in poverty. Low quality education does not prepare youth for an extremely competitive workplace. The post-industrial economy that is information based demands that workers devote themselves to learning new skills. This means the majority will require an education beyond high school. Without higher education, many are shut off from particular occupations and fields. Universities and colleges must find a way to make tuition affordable for the majority of the population to prevent an expansion of an underclass. Even if a student finishes their education, they are left with debt. If wages are stagnant it will be impossible to repay those debts due to student loans. The hope is that after graduation there would be jobs to meet the needs of workers who contribute to the global economy. The middle class could vanish in America and in Europe  as more citizens struggle. The reason the developing world struggles is that social mobility is non-existent. The social consequences are mass poverty,homelessness, and civil unrest. A population that has nothing to lose becomes a dangerous one. A large divide between the destitute and the upper class lays the foundation for revolution. Such an uprising would not be peaceful or be a true freedom struggle. It could descend into a full scale collapse of civilization. Although this may be mere hyperbole,there has been such upheaval throughout history. The 20th century was a period of upheaval with the Great Depression, two World Wars, the Cold War, and the era of US dominance. The economic structure no longer works for the majority of the world. Neoliberal capitalism caused social problems, yet its fall will result in unrest. 

          International stability now seems elusive. The current policies implemented by the US and EU block are inducing more unrest across various continents. The Middle East, Africa, and Asia are subject to external interference. The precarious nature of this is that NATO is expanding. The Cold War was been over, but this military alliance still remains. Russia could be targeted like Libya or the former Yugoslavia. NATO conducted wars of aggression presented as humanitarian acts. The United Nations has gradually become more corrupt by allowing superpower domination and selective justice. It places sanctions on North Korea, yet never condemns Israel's aggression in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia continues to wage a war of aggression in Yemen. There continues to be calls for regime change in Syria. If this were to be done, it would be another Iraq like situation. The only logical conclusion to reduce regional  refugee migration is to stop military strikes. Regime change and nation building should not be part of  foreign policy. Practical approaches should be made to solve international disputes. A paradigm shift must happen so that the nations of the world do not fight one another for power. Doing so creates an international network of rival alliance systems. Such obligations and treaties made between countries will only lead to mass global conflict. The purpose of the United Nations was to prevent such an event from occurring. The devastation that was unleashed during World War II made world leaders realize that collaboration was a better alternative to warfare. The Allies soon drifted apart descending into tension and competition. The post-World War II order was the US and U.S.S.R struggling for dominance of the world. That has since ended yet the old colonial empires and the US seek too remain predominant. The world has gradually become multipolar in terms of international power structure. The US-EU block function on the traditional wars of proxy used during the Cold War.  Such a dated model will not work in a rapidly changing world. Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Libya are centers of international instability.The US, UK, France, and the Gulf monarchies have supplied weapons to various terrorist organizations and armed groups with the intention of removal of certain regimes. While others have fallen this has caused blowback with an increase in terrorism. Germany and the UK have experienced terrorist attacks over the years. These acts of violence are reactions to western military intervention in the Muslim world and the policy of regime change. There is now a new era of international instability that cannot be  reduced. There will have to be a radical change in foreign policy and the goal of international affairs to return the globe to at least a moderate condition.