Zimbabwe Under Siege

Zimbabwe is undergoing a major political crisis. The military has appeared to have launched a coup and placed President Robert Mugabe under house arrest. This may have been temporary, because President Mugabe made a public appearance. There has clearly been an increase in political factionalism within ZANU-PF. Questions still remain about a successor to the 93 year old president and what the future of the nations will be. President Mugabe has support, yet some citizens took to the streets to call for his resignation. It is unclear just how many approve or disapprove of his rule during the current situation. The West and the mass media are already showing their jubilation and bias, hoping to see Zimbabwe collapse. The lugubrious fact about the crisis is that was internal. There is no evidence entirely to suggest that China, the US, or Zimbabwe's traditional adversary the UK had involvement. The military insisted that this was not coup even though soldiers were taking over public spaces and media outlets in the country. The reason for this explanation was probably an attempt to avoid sanctions from the African Union. It could also be that the military was attempting to stop Grace Mugabe from taking the presidency. The First Lady's rise has caused much tension and disarray in the political landscape in Zimbabwe. President Mugabe's refusal to name a successor also added to the current crisis in the country. It will be only a matter of time before the EU countries use this as an excuse to intervene, possibly with the force of NATO. South Africa is in a way preventing such an event by playing a mediating role between President Mugabe and the military. As the crisis progresses it is obvious that Zimbabwe is under siege by both domestic and foreign enemies. The President should be allowed to finish his term as designated by the constitution. If he is to pass on during his service in office, a successor will serve until elections are held. A leader should not be removed by an armed force or by street demonstrations. This promotes a political culture of mob violence and military rule. If President Mugabe is to be impeached there should be a legitimate reason under the law to do so. Arguing this legally would be a challenge. Robert Mugabe is one of the last leaders of the liberation struggle era and one of the few African leaders keeping Pan-African ideology alive. This new attack on Zimbabwe and its leader is a way to reverse the progress made from independence. 

           The heart of the problem is rooted in the dismissal of  two important political figures. Joice Muju was vice president serving from 2004 to 2014 and was in many regards a good candidate for a successor. However, the political ambitions of Grace Mugabe targeted officials that were close to President Mugabe's inner circle. She wanted to be the president of Zimbabwe and attempted to ruthlessly remove obstacles in her way. This calculated plan to seize power resulted in one fatal error. Removing Emmerson Mnangagwa as vice president sparked outrage among the military. He had been a veteran of the Rhodesian Bush War and earned much respect from the military establishment. Grace Mugabe does not have the same stature or support. While Grace built up a base of followers, many in the military establishment despised the idea of a Grace Mugabe presidency. She was head of the Women's Wing of ZANU-PF and has been First Lady since 1996.When Muju was removed this marked a point in which Grace Mugabe became more politically powerful. She almost began to resemble a Lady Macbeth like figure with in Zimbabwe's political system. It appears that after the military incident in November of 2017, that Grace has lost most of her political power. Her whereabouts are unknown, but there is indication she could still be under house arrest. There is a possibility that she may flee the country seeking asylum. Emmerson Mnangagwa currently has been in South Africa since his removal from the vice presidency. 

There is a power struggle for the presidency when a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe emerges. There remains uncertainty about who will run the country then. The ZANU-PF party is split among members who still support President Mugabe and other who believe that there should be transition to a successor. What must be avoided is a possible civil war that could emerge in a rapidly changing landscape. 

          President Robert Mugabe has become embattled. His fight is not just for the presidency, legacy, or  preservation of power; it is is for Zimbabwe's national sovereignty. Zimbabwe had to fight a long war of liberation against the British and white minority rule. The Ian Smith regime with its abuses, left many Zimbabweans in fear. Rape, torture, and murder by colonial settlers was common place. These were not the only crimes committed, but also the theft of land. During the 1960s  land was stolen by whites by means of force. The UK and the white minority government realized that they could no longer hold onto Zimbabwe. The Lancaster House Agreement was designed to redress the issue of stolen land. Years passed with limited action. The UK did not uphold its part of the agreement. This was when President Mugabe decided to retake what was rightfully property of the citizens of Zimbabwe. The year 2000 marked a decline in UK- Zimbabwe relations under Tony Blair. The US imposed sanctions over the controversial 2002 election. While that election had irregularities, the US was doing this for another reason. This was the early stages of America's new era of the War on Terrorism. This policy of aggressive war was targeting any stage that challenged US hegemony. Under a neoconservative foreign policy direction the US would attempt nation building projects and impose their version of a democratic system around the world. Zimbabwe became another target just like Cuba, Iran, Libya, and Iraq which would be invaded by 2003. Robert Mugabe had relations with various countries that the US either started conflicts with or was attempting to attack or undermine. Zimbabwe maintained close relations with the People's Republic of China and Iran. Zimbabwe was a close ally of Libya under Qaddafi. During the NATO invasion Robert Mugabe condemned the military action and called the death of both Muammar Qaddafi and US ambassador as tragic. Robert Mugabe's solidarity with Global South Nations made him unpopular among the EU-US block nations. When a nations refuses to submit to a more potent nation, it faces retaliation. If it were not for China's bilateral economic agreements, the economy of Zimbabwe would have been in an even worse condition. It should be remembered that when Zimbabwe was economically stable, whites controlled most of that wealth. Zimbabweans were excluded from the market place and were merely laborers in the colonial system.  

Zanu-PF was attempting to undo the damage caused by colonial rule. This meant giving the land back to the people and increasing productivity. Zimbabwe was making progress in tobacco production. The country continued to look for other countries to boost investment. Iran was one of the nations in which Zimbabwe wants to do business with. Robert Mugabe met with Hassan Rouhani to discuss trade agreements and possible long term political and cultural exchange. The conflicts occurring in the Middle East and the tension with Iran cause those who associate with it to be caught up in an expansive international conflict. Iran has been alienated by its Arab neighbors excluding Oman, Qatar, Syria, and Iraq. Zimbabwe realized that the oil rich nation could be helpful in terms of investment. Even though the two countries are on different political trajectories, this does not mean they cannot collaborate on common goals or concerns. 

Zimbabwe has an immense amount of natural resources, which include coal, chromium ore, platinum, gold, nickle, copper, iron ore, and diamonds. A Mugabe presidency will not allow Western countries to forcefully take such valuable commodities. The reason the West wants to see President Mugabe fall is so they can get access to those natural resources. They also want to prevent a strong alliance between African and Asian nations with could challenge the US-EU block. Although the European colonial empires are gone, the behavior and attitudes of  these nations has not disappeared. The UK, US, France, Italy, and Germany still believe they have the right to rule and subjugate people of color around the world. Robert Mugabe represents that older generation that took freedom from imperial oppressors. His life and actions have inspired many to continue to fight for the African continent and undermine neo-colonial projects. Some wonder why did he continue to run for president for so long. The more negative answer is that he is a power mad tyrant or authoritarian. This is an image that has been presented by the mainstream Western media, but fails to remember that there was a time in which there was power sharing with the Movement for Democracy. Zanu and Zapu were once harsh competitors, but formed one party under the framework envisioned by Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe. Other leaders are not so accommodating on the African continent. Yoweri Museveni, Idris Deby, and Omar Al-Bashir fit the description of true authoritarians. Robert Mugabe hardly falls into that category. Robert Mugabe continues to lead mainly, because he fears that Zimbabwe will revert back to its colonial past. The trepidation comes from a more belligerent US and a UK that is more xenophobic than ever. The fear of losing what was fought for is a real possibility. If Zimbabwe cannot solve its own internal problems, it invites foreign intervention. This thought has probably came to President Mugabe, who is determined to finish his term. 

        There has been international responses. South Africa wants to see a Zimbabwe which is stable and may not be entirely willing to see a transition occur. A swift change from an old to new administration could mean a large amount of refugees. South Africa under President Jacob Zuma has faced economic and social turmoil. It may not have the capacity to deal with such a large influx of refugees. This could lead to more xenophobic violence outbreaks. This has happened before in South Africa and at this moment Jacob Zuma  may not have the ability to address the the crisis. There has been discussion of the Mugabes going into exile. If this were to happen it may either be Angola or Namibia. Such a proposal would cause more of a controversy,because it will strain relations among the nations of the Southern African Development Community. The African Union must do all that it can to prevent violence or European interference. The street protests have thus so far have been peaceful, but are problematic. It is probable this will be used as a pretext for a US or UK invasion. The responsibility to protect has been used to abuse countries who do not follow Western foreign  policy  objectives. A forced Mugabe exit would certainly cause shock waves across Africa. Uganda, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, and Mauritania would most likely become more oppressive thinking that there could be some form of continent wide regime change. Africa has been under siege and Zimbabwe is another nation under attack. The rise of Africom  and the NATO strike at Libya is evidence of  neocolonialism. Zimbabwe is already under sanctions from most EU countries. African nations still have normal relations with the country, while South Africa has its strongest support. Zimbabwe if it does not solve its own political crisis could become an area of proxy war between China and the United States. The US wants to stop China's advancement in Africa, by means of  military force and support from collaborator governments. It is unlikely that China would come to Zimbabwe's aid if the situation became violent. They did not come to Libya's aid and voted for UN resolution 1973. Unfortunately, internal instability will attract other world powers. The solution to this crisis may not even be President Mugabe himself. 

        Political factionalism has been a constant struggle for Zimbabwe since independence. ZANU-PF factions are fighting one another. This political party was formed out of two liberation organizations during the 1980s. ZANU and ZAPU were rivals. The Dissent's War  between 1982 to 1987 had the two liberation organizations at war to control the country. Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe reached a power sharing deal ending internal strife. The internal division is also related to ethnicity. Shona and Ndebele are still in a state of suspicion of one another. The one party state was established and modeled on a Tanzanian system to avoid possible ethnic conflict. Even with the unification of two liberation organizations there were problems with opposition groups. The Movement for Democracy became a major opposition party in the 2000s. Morgan Tsvangirai was seeking to win the presidency in 2013, but Mugabe got 61% of the vote. There was violence that broke out between MDC and ZANU-PF supporters. Another power sharing deal was reached preventing possible war. Zimbabwe may not be able to function on a Western style multiparty system. A imposed or forced removal of President Mugabe will result in a wider deterioration of the state. Political factionalism will escalate to open warfare, if there is no reasonable solution. The military is apparently seeking a means to govern while presenting a facade of civilian rule. Similar to how the military establishment functions in Thailand or Myanmar generals would still have massive influence in government. There also could be division in the military establishment of Zimbabwe. However, the National Zimbabwe War Veterans Association seems to have turned against President Mugabe. This sudden reversal began around 2016 and continued to erode a pivotal part of his base. The youth of the country are becoming restless and they are the future of the country. What should have been done was to mentor the youth wings of the party. The old guard should have molded new leaders that did not think in the same manner. The emphasis should be on unity, socialist principles of the party, and Pan-African ideology. These are values that should be presented to the public and youth to ensure a stable and prosperous Zimbabwe. Sadly, the country has descended into hostility and conflict. 

       The pathway to a peaceful solution has to involve several procedures. President Mugabe must finish his term. Removing him by military force or street protest encourages a future of unstable power transition. Power transition has been a challenge for African states since independence. When a longtime leader is removed or leaves office there is a level of disorder. A standard procedure and following the constitution will prevent mob violence or civil disturbance. If there is an issue with a president being in office too long, then term limits should be imposed. The number can vary, however it should be respected. If there remains a problem with electoral fraud, then there should be supervision under the African Union. Yet, national sovereignty must be observed. Other African nations should not interfere with the internal affairs of states. It could be that South Africa will have more influence in a weakened Zimbabwe. There is also a probability that Zambia and Mozambique may send troops with South Africa for stabilization efforts. This must be avoided. A civil war in Zimbabwe could escalate to a level similar to the Second Congolese Civil War. If there is to be an abrupt power transition, Joice Mujuru should be the successor. A  Grace Mugabe presidency would actually be authoritarian and oppressive. She should have no political future for inducing the political crisis that has developed. Emmerson Mnangagwa  would not be a suitable choice either.His military connections would surely mold the country in a junta type of government. If President Mugabe is able to avoid impeachment or removal from office, he should finally decide who will be his successor. This has been delayed for decades and it is time to make that choice. Zimbabwe's future seems uncertain, but it can have a positive one if citizens decide to make it so. Zimbabwe must be ready to fight, because its existence will be under attack.