Relations between North and South Korea have reach a new nadir. North Korea has threatened preemptive strike . The US continues to do drills in coordination with the South Korean military. These recent launches of missiles by North Korea is not a demonstration of strength, but of fear. Growing US presence in Asia-Pacific has triggered a regional reaction. America's Asia Pivot policy is dividing Asia into two opposing camps. There are nations such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia are gradually forming an anti-China alliance . This is under the guidance of the United States. The world's most powerful nation has had a long history of imperialism in Asia. North Korea although not a model or praise worthy state has continued to challenge the US. This is complicated further by North Korea developing nuclear weapons. If North Korea develops a formidable arsenal it could have certain repercussions that are unfavorable. It could cause other nations to get involved in a nuclear arms race. It could be used by the United States as a justification for expanding into East Asia further. Currently, the United Nations intends to impose extremely strict sanctions in opposition to North Korea's nuclear testing. This will have the opposite effect causing North Korea to become more recalcitrant.The current geopolitical situation can be explained by history, the rise of nuclear weaponry, and US interventions.
The present contention can be linked to the Cold War. The US after World War II chose to follow a policy of containment. This policy involved stopping the spread of Soviet communism. Originally designed for Europe, the US then applied it to Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Korea suffered under the domination of Japan. It was added as a colony in 1910. When the Japanese Empire was defeated in 1945 both the Soviet Union and the United States occupied Korea. Korea seemed like it could not escape from foreign invaders coming to its land. Another problem was that it was now divided in two. Two states emerged : a communist north and a US backed south. This division of Korea was nothing new. From the ancient period of history to the 20th century, there were times Korea was never fully unified. There were periods of unified states or separate kingdoms. When North Korea invaded South Korea it triggered a US response. Harry S. Truman sent troops to retake Korea, but did not describe it as war. He referred to this as a "police action." Under the cover of a United Nations mission the US engaged in a military action. North Korea would have been defeated if it were not for the intervention of Communist China. The People's Liberation Army was able to push back the US led UN force. The war was waged from 1950 to 1953 and ended with a ceasefire. The United States did not have victory and Korea was still divided. To date this has to be one of the world's longest ceasefires. The US intervention had nothing to do with human rights, but competition with the Soviet Union. Korea became another proxy for conflict in the Cold War. When the US attempted imperial maneuvers in Indochina, Korea haunted them. The reason North Vietnam did not face ground invasion by the US was the fear that China would send the PLA in response. Eventually, the US would open relations with China and be defeated in Vietnam. That symbolized the retreat of US imperialism in East Asia .North Korea was still a target of the US, even when the Cold War ended.
During the Clinton administration, tensions again rose to dangerous levels. The US was even considering military action in 1994 over North Korea's accelerated nuclear weapons program. This was a point in which North Korea was in political transition. Kim Il-Sung died and his son Kim Jung-Il rose to power. It was a vulnerable time for the isolated country. The only reason president Clinton did not strike the country was because there was a high possibility of US casualties if an invasion were to take place. Instead, President Clinton attempted diplomacy to come to an agreement on North Korea's nuclear programs. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright went to North Korea in the year 2000. She was the first high level US official to visit North Korea . These negotiations were not a complete success. However, it was a positive step at starting a dialogue between two nations with hostile feelings toward one another. There are reasons why these talks failed. North Korea was still suspicious of US intentions in Asia. This was not based on conspiracy theories, but a number of events in the 1990s. The US had bombed Iraq in 1998, intervened in Somalia, and bombed Kosovo in 1999. The United States was and continues to be the world's only superpower. The US continued to hold a grudge against the war that ended with a ceasefire. These factors are why Madeleine Albright's visit was not entirely effective at normalizing relations or reducing hostility. While the Clinton administration made no progress, the Bush administration became more belligerent.
This was the early 9/11 era and President Bush declared North Korea part of an "axis of evil."Neoconservative foreign policy had destroyed previous attempts to negotiate with North Korea. Kim Jung Il now became more paranoid about the US. After the 2003 Iraq War many leaders around the world became concerned about growing US military action. Nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America wondered if they were next. As President Bush said " you are either with us, or you are with the terrorists." The desire to act unilaterally on international disputes and attack nations damaged America's image. North Korea reacted by conducting missile launches in 2006, which almost hit targets in Japan. There was some hope of change with President Obama, but that ended with a new policy : the pivot to Asia. It is directed at China, but it will target nations in Asia that do not submit to US foreign policy objectives. US imperialism has been rejuvenated in Asia under a disguise of collective security.
There are concerns about nuclear proliferation in Asia. The US is the only country so far to use nuclear weapons in a war. If anything, there should be more concern about the arsenals of the US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Israel. The reason is that other nations in the region will also become involved in an arms race. Nuclear weapons still hold a level of prestige for some countries. Japan, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the Philippines would want nuclear weapons if North Korea developed a large arsenal. It gives them a level of respect while projecting an image of power . If Asia was to go through an arms race, there would be more tension among a nuclear armed South Korea. Even though Korea is one place, the North and the South now have two distinct national identities. There is a level of hatred that has been present for decades and cannot be subsided easily.Mutually assured destruction should prevent countries from acting too extreme. There still is a possibility of nuclear brinkmanship. If both North and South Korea have a nuclear exchange it would mean that the US and China would have to react. This is why China is not supportive of North Korea having nuclear weapons. China now even approves sanctions, even though North Korea is its ally. Wang Yi Chinese the foreign minister even met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss how North Korea could be dealt with. Nuclear weapons capability means more power and independence. China when it was developing nuclear weapons worried Russia. The Sino-Soviet Split encouraged Mao's China to develop nuclear weapons. Russia and China had become hostile toward one another. There were fears of a conflict with Russia and simultaneously the US. Around 1964 China had a successful nuclear detonation and test. This symbolic meant China was a country not to be tampered with. North Korea seeks that guarantee of security. China was willing to provide this up to a certain extent . Korea's political system has not reformed like China's and the two countries are growing further apart .Nuclear proliferation complicates this, because North Korea could pursue more independent foreign policy. Nuclear weapons are deterrence against invasion or violation of sovereignty. North Korea views it as a means of survival.
There have been tensions over the years, but this could escalate into war between North and South Korea. The rhetoric that has been exchanged has been incendiary. President Park Guen-Hye warned North Korea of "regime collapse." She was imply that the rulers would be deposed very soon if their behavior does not change. Kim Jong Un then responded by saying "he is preparing North Korea for preemptive war."While this is occurring the United States has been conducting drills with the South Korean military. Uncivil exchanges have happened between the two leaders previously. These latest comments seem more serious and provocative.
The only factor that preventing a larger coalition is Japan. South Korea still has numerous issues with Japan. One is the issue of financial compensation for Korean comfort women during World War II. Japan refuses to acknowledge its wartime wrong doing to Asia. Shinzo Abe heads a conservative government, which does not see anti-Korean racism as a problem. The United States hopes to build a much stronger anti-North Korea alliance with Japan and South Korea included. This alliance would be fragile considering Japan does not regard Koreans highly. There could be a possibility that Japan takes matters into their own hands. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sought to dismantle Japan's pacifist constitution. His argument is that it would allow Japan to help in counter-terrorism operations around the world. The real motive is to make Japan the dominant power in Asia once more. This sudden turn to militarization is directed more so at China, but will effect the Korean peninsula at some point. The tension on the Korean peninsula could result in a wider East Asian war. The approach by the United States will exacerbate the situation. China's six party talks in the mid-2000s was an attempt at a balanced method at solving political disputes between North and South Korea. Unfortunately, these happened at the wrong time when the US was not interested in their success. Regime change had become official US policy promoted by both Republican and Democratic Parties . President George W. Bush viewed the world in simplistic terms labeling countries as either "good" or "evil." North Korea fell into the category of "dangerous country." So, the Bush administration refused to use diplomacy for certain international disputes. There was little improvement with President Obama who expanded US presence in the Asia-Pacific region. The death of Kim Jong Il opened the possibility for change in the system. Kim Jong Un was a young leader and may have a different perspective of the world than his father did. This quickly unraveled with the execution of Jang Sung -taek, one of the most powerful officials in North Korea next to the Supreme Leader. This was a purge occurring in 2013 and demonstrated that oppressive policies would remain in place. The South Korean President Park Geun Hye is the daughter of one of South Korea's most authoritarian presidents. Her father ruled with an iron fist from 1961 to 1979. Her government has been accused of corruption and bribery. Many of her critics accuse her of being too harsh and bellicose with North Korea. Mediation or reconciliation may not be reachable considering these two leaders were shaped by the past and their parents. It almost appears as if two rival dynasties are struggling for control.There may be a desire to see one collapse so that Korea can be fully reunified. The end of cooperation in the Kaesong industrial zone marks a negative turn in relations.This business venture could have led to a lasting settlement and economic prosperity for both North and South Korea. It may be only a matter of time before war breaks out.
If tensions and a possible war are to be avoided, there a certain conditions that have to be met. The first is that it must be an initiative bilaterally between North and South Korea to improve relations. The involvement of other countries will only complicate matters and be used as a platform for other nations to advance their agenda in Asia. While China's efforts with the six party talks was commendable, it was clear that they still believe that North Korea is a sphere of influence. At the moment North Korea is asserting itself more much to China's discontent. The United States sees South Korea as one giant military base and a tool for their foreign policy. The Korean peninsula is not a colony. If the present circumstances continue both North and South Korea could gradually see their national sovereignty diminish.Another condition that has to be realized is that sanctions are counterproductive. The sanctions normally harm the citizens of the nation being punished. The United Nations has vowed to impose the most strict sanctions to date on North Korea. This will not make North Korea more compliant, but more obdurate in behavior. It also gives North Korea more source material for propaganda campaigns. Sanctions will just create a population more vexed at the United States and the United Nations.The most important condition is that nations of the world must come to the realization that other nations will acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea will be one of many countries that will be armed with such weapons. Technology can bring benefits to society as well as unanticipated negative ones. The only way to prevent nuclear war is through skillful diplomacy. This was a lesson that was learned through the Cuban missile crisis. The US and the Soviet Union came to an agreement, when realizing how close they came to destruction. The Soviets removed their launch systems from Cuba and the US removed nuclear sites from Turkey. North Korea can be managed in a similar manner. This will have to be done under the guidance of other Asian nations and not the United States. Threats of regime change, invasion, and war must stop if progress is to be made. The fate of Korea is in the hands of two leaders, who are now in a state of bitter rivalry. If this is exacerbated the future of Korea will be a dismal one.
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