India and Pakistan Tensions

Kashmir has been a source of tension between India and Pakistan for nearly 70 years. The conflict between India and Pakistan has been ongoing since the end of British imperial rule. There could be a possibility of another Indo-Pakistani war ever since a terrorist attack occurred in Indian occupied Kashmir. Kashmir clearly has become more enraged by the occupation of two countries, which to the perspective of the general public has not been an improvement to the region. Although there are accusations that Pakistan encouraged violence, there may be a growing indigenous rebellion against the administration by both Pakistan and India. This explains why Jammat -e- Ismali has been deemed as an "unlawful" association by the Indian government. There are plans to have a crackdown of the organization's activities by Narendra Modi's  new policies. Prime Minister Imran Khan has stated that the claims that Pakistan coordinated in Kashmir as false. Prime Minister Narendra Modi then responded that India would retaliate. The attack was allegedly carried out by Jaish -e- Muhammad. Founded in the year 2000, the goal of the JeM is to unite Indian occupied Kashmir with Pakistan. Ever since, there have been incidents linked to what has been considered a terrorist organization. If tensions continue, there could be another large South Asia war between India and Pakistan. What complicates matters is that both nations have nuclear weapons capability. China also may find itself being caught in the conflict seeing as it has favored Pakistan in its foreign policy and occupies Aksai Chin. Another Indo-Pakistani war  would cause problems in the maintenance and development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Such a conflict may be similar to the result of the Indo-Pakistani  War of 1971. Bangladesh became independent and India became the most powerful country in South Asia. Pakistan may emerge as the victor in a new conflict with Kashmir gaining independence. Or Kashmir could be annexed into Pakistan. A new war could have devastating political and economic consequences. China and the EU have attempted mediation efforts, but the crisis has no sign of ending.   

Libya Remains A Battleground

Libya remains a battleground eight years after the civil war. Nation building and neocolonialism remain Africa's biggest security threats directed by the EU and US. The Al Jazeera report attempts to present an optimistic outlook about Libya's future, stating that they are better off without Qaddafi. This popular fiction distorts the facts that under Muammar Qaddafi Libya has economic stability, functioning social services, and was embarking on projects of Pan-African unity. The Libya invention also cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 presidential election in relation to the e-mail scandal and the death of Christopher Stevens. The support for rebel factions in Libya was the nadir of the Obama administration and still has devastating consequences. Libya is not free, rather it is under domination of militias, terrorist organizations, and foreign powers. The government based in Tripoli is supported by the United Nations, while the Benghazi based capital is supported by Egypt, France, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. Khalifa Hafner has become more willing to escalate conflict with other warlords to obtain power in Libya. Tribalism and racism has become more pronounced after the fall of  the Qaddafi government. There are Amazigh  who are demanding greater autonomy who did face a level of discrimination under  Qaddafi. It seems clear that Libya will not be stable anytime soon.  

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika Is Running For Another Term

President Adelaziz Bouteflika has no plans to relinquish the presidency with the intent to run for another term. He has been in power since 1999, with a political career that began in 1962. Algeria was able to avoid the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, which saw many of the longtime  North African leaders fall from power. Bouteflika however, has faced major health problems. A stroke in 2013 has left him wheelchair bound. There is the claim from the ruling coalition that he still has the ability to lead. There is a growing concern that others are manipulating him and gradually taking power. A youthful population has grown ever more restless, which could result in mass protests and insurrection. France has significant investment in the country and has held a pro-Bouteflika position. Unless there is serious political reform or dramatic change, President Bouteflika could either lose the election or face being removed forcefully from power. It seems that the semi-democratic system has been undermined by a strong executive power coming from the ruling party.President Bouteflika's rare public appearances make many wonder if he really is in control at all. A sudden destabilization of Algeria could increase migrant and refugee traffic. What also might happen would be more armed conflict in neighboring Libya spilling over into other nations such as Niger, Chad, or Sudan.