Nawaz Sharif Resigns

The Supreme Court of Pakistan has disqualified Nawaz Sharif after the Panama Papers verdict. The Pakistani Prime Minister had for a longtime had vast influence over the political system and it seemed that he was not going any where soon. His children and himself were facing charges of corruption that escalated over the past two years. There were previous attempts to have him step down, specifically with Imran Khan and the Pakistan Movement of Justice. This sudden turn of events could destabilize the region. This is not the first time Sharif fell from power. The coup of 1999 saw Musharraf Pervez  come to power. There are rumors that his brother could take over, but he also is accused of corruption. Nawaz Sharif could not explain how certain funds were amassed to his as well as his family's accounts. If he had remained there could have been street protests, but there may still be as Pakistanis lose faith in their government. This has implications beyond Pakistani borders. An unstable Pakistan could jeopardize the China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Silk Road project. Afghanistan would feel after shocks with a Taliban still active and undefeated. India could benefit the most from a weakened Pakistan, because at the moment India seems to be interested in increasing its power. This does not mean it wants to challenge its traditional enemy Pakistan, but conflate border issues with China. Soon if not already, the Indian Ocean will be a point of conflict. China has in its foreign policy been more supportive of Pakistan. The change in leadership holds a level of uncertainty and fear when analyzing other regional sources of contention. 

Malcolm X on Islam

World Leader Profile: Yoweri Museveni

Yoweri Museveni is the current president of Uganda. He has held the office since 1986. His presidency has been described as authoritarian by some observers, yet there has been some stability in a country know to have internal strife. Uganda will certainly become more of important power in Africa. This could be as positive development depending on the decisions of  President Museveni. Involvement in Sudan, The Democratic Republic of the Congo,  and more of the East African region proves to be problematic. These efforts are not out of cross continental solidarity or security, but to extend Ugandan influence. Far from being a Pan-Africanist supporter, he may espouse such sentiments when it suits his government politically.  Yoweri Museveni was active in insurrections against the governments of Milton Obote and Idi Amin. When these two leaders were deposed Museveni vowed that Uganda would never fall in to instability again. Using the tumult of past regimes as a justification for extended rule, it almost appears as if he will become president of life. Currently serving his fifth term, opposition cannot organize effective political counters. As a politician he skillful at maintaining power and control. When he was a warlord he mastered the art of survival. The local and international political landscape changes rapidly, yet Yoweri Museveni is able to remain the face of Uganda. This African leader has been a permanent fixture for 31 years and still remains a mysterious figure. Questions and rumors circulate about his background and involvement in regional conflicts.
    Yoweri Museveni was born in 1944. There have been claims that his birth date may not be accurate. The issue surrounding this is regards to an age requirement for the Ugandan presidency. The age limit is 75 and at that age a candidate can no longer run for reelection. The Ugandan constitution is subject to change however. Yoweri Museveni has stated that he does not know the exact date of his birth. The reason for this were that his parents were illiterate and thus could not write or document the date of his birth. Southwaest Uganda was not as developed and records or birth certificates may not have been widely distributed in the 1940s. It was clear even in his youth he was anticipating a political career. When attending the University of Dar es Salaam he studied law, political science, and economics. After graduating he would later become an officer in the General Service Unit in 1970. This was the Milton Obote period and Uganda was still  trying to recover from British imperialism including economic challenges. Another problem was the increasing power of the Ugandan military. The GSU was formed to prevent overreach of their legally defined powers. They failed to prevent the rise of a military government and in 1971 Idi Amin came to power. The coup forced Museveni into exile and from that point on he plotted to become leader of Uganda.

Museveni then went on to form the Front for the National Salvation of Uganda. Camps were active inside the country to undermine the Amin regime. FRONSA was formed in 1972 and Museveni was the most recognizable figure of opposition. Idi Amin's regime collapsed in 1979 when Tanzania waged war. FRONSA was also fighting intensely during the conflict. Yoweri Museveni was able to get a government post as defense minister under the Yusuf  Lule government. The interim government under Lule was fragile and it was a matter of time that conflict would erupt once more. Yusuf Lule's successor was less capable at solving the issues surrounding political factionalism. Godfrey Binasia was the next leader of Uganda and was also fearful of Museveni's rise. Yoweri Museveni was then removed as defense minister and made minister of regional cooperation. The year 1980 was a major shift in the Ugandan political landscape. The government of Binasia was replaced with a Military Commission under the supervision of Paul Muwanga.  Yoweri Museveni was then promoted to vice chairman. Elections were held and Milton Obote returned to the country. Obote would return to power, but political disagreements and general discord did not disappear. Allegations of electoral fraud and vote rigging were rampant. Museveni wanted to seize power and by 1981 he formed another guerrilla resistance movement. The National Resistance Movement and the armed group National Resistance Army would continue to fight the second Obote government throughout the 1980s. The Obote government would fall again this time from a coup by General  Tito Okello. Yoweri Museveni thought it would be better to seek collaboration with the new administration. A peace pact was signed in December of 1985 with the hope the two leaders could form a unity government. 

The ambitions of Yoweri Museveni were too great to share power. He was now at a position to take power and nothing was going to stand in his way. Museveni was able to remain a survivor through a combination of force and deceptive tactics. The National Resistance Army under Museveni  fought the Ugandan army and took Kampala by force in 1986. He then went about presenting an image of peace maker, offering reconciliation to formerly opposed groups. This false olive branch did not convince the other armed groups opposed to his rule. Limited elections were allowed in 1989, but full national elections were not permitted until 1995. Opposition by 1990 was so marginalized that it was no longer a threat to his rule. When presidential elections occurred in 1996. no candidate could defeat or pose a serious challenge. 

      Armed rebellion continued even with Museveni firmly in control. Sometimes Museveni's actions contributed to violence outside its borders. When Museveni expelled Rwandan troops from the Ugandan military, they went on to join the Rwandan Patriotic Front. The RPF would then go onto fight the government of Juvenal Habyarimana in 1994. The result of his assassination would lead to war and genocide in Rwanda. The Lord's Resistance Army has been a persistent adversary with the Museveni government. The group based in Sudan has since the mid-2000s lost much of its fighting power. Mainly this is because Sudan broke into two countries in 2011. The complexities of Sudan and South Sudan conflict as well as the Neur and Dinka conflict only undermines the Lord's Resistance Army's fighting strength. To compensate the group has spread to neighboring states. The West Nile Bank Front also is an internal concern for Yoweri Museveni. The West Nile is not completely under control. Another armed group fighting the government is the Allied Democratic Forces. They are mostly based in the Ruwenzori Mountains. So far none of these armed groups have accomplished their goal of removing Museveni. They do not collaborate in combat and obviously have separate objectives. Yoweri Museveni can use these armed insurgencies as an excuse to rule continuously. His term limits could either be extended or he could become president for life. Museveni has a powerful military on his side and has a background in armed conflict. Museveni also intervened in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the early stages of their civil war in 1998. This was mostly in  the eastern region of the DRC. Museveni aligned with Rwanda against President Laurent Kabila. The Tutsi population was in full scale insurrection. Yoweri Museveni  justified the invention saying it was designed to protect borders and lives. The reality was that it was an attempt to remove Laurent Kabila from power. 

What Museveni saw in the Tutsi rebels was a means of extending his reach and simultaneously fighting armed groups opposed to him from abroad. The Second Congolese Civil War would be one of Africa's most brutal conflicts Museveni even at one point came close to conflict with President Paul Kagame of Rwanda. Both Rwandan and Ugandan units began exchanging fire. The issues between the two countries were resolved in 2002. This incident made Yoweri Museveni realize there were dangers of being too involved in the affairs of neighbors. Museveni then decided to sign a peace agreement with President Joseph Kabila, which allowed for the withdraw of Ugandan troops. By 2003 most of the Ugandan troops were removed and the conflicted ended that same year. This intervention could hardly be seen as a victory. Most of the armed groups that Museveni want to eradicate remained active and he was unable to depose the Kabilas. While President Museveni does not like opposition the armed groups to serve to legitimize his authoritarian political tactics. 

      There are many ways that Yoweri Museveni has been able to survive politically. President Museveni  appeals to the youth of Uganda by engaging in the latest trends. He released his own rap song specifically targeting young voters in the last election. Yoweri Museveni  also has his own Twitter account which maintains thousands of followers. The use of social media and adopting youth culture ensures limited opposition in the future. Museveni  wants to maintain his rule by presenting himself as a reformer, but still has the same authoritarian tendencies. Multiparty elections were held in 2003 mainly to placate US and European Union critics. Uganda at this time was moving closer to a western orbit. A persistent challenge internally was coming from Kizza Besigye. He challenged Museveni in 2001 and came out of exile from the US in 2005. Museveni realizing how much of threat he was to his rule and amended the constitution. When the 2006 election occurred the outcome was apparent. Besigye lost again, but there were allegations of  electoral fraud, intimidation, and violence. Kizza Besigye has faced jail time mainly for being opposed to the Museveni presidency. A constant political activist he was involved in the walk to work protests over increasing food and fuel prices. Besigye and Museveni were once allies when fighting the Obote government in the 1980s. This seems to be a cycle in Ugandan politics. A longtime leader clinging to power, which induces armed uprisings. It seems that Museveni over the decades has morphed into another version of Idi Amin. Being involved in the inner workings of Ugandan politics for so long, Yoweri Museveni has learned to manipulate the political system. Amending the constitution, being unclear about a successor, and blaming armed insurgencies for all of Uganda's problems protects his political power. The system of governance known as the Movement system was Museveni's version of democracy in which individuals would compete for office based on merit. This system was basically officials competing for his favor and blessings. While Yoweri Museveni's electoral victories are guaranteed, his relations with the West are not. Coming into his third term US and EU leaders began to become more critical. Aid and diplomatic relations were deteriorating. 

       Yoweri Museveni was at one time seen by the West as a model leader. The reason for this thinking was that countries like the UK and US thought they had a leader they could easily manipulate. Former colonizer of Uganda,  the UK wanted to reestablish ties to a land that was once under its domination. The UK provided aid, but reduced it after the 2006 election controversy. President Bill Clinton provided aid to Museveni during his administration in the 1990s. It was actually the Ronald Reagan administration that was the first to embrace the Museveni presidency. President Clinton even said that Museveni was a "new breed of leader." The US and UK were well aware of the atrocities that Yoweri Museveni committed during his forceful take over of the government. It is estimated that at least 500,000 people died  in the five year war prior to 1986. At the end of the Cold War the US wanted to have a strong foothold in Africa. This meant keeping close alliances with leaders who were in line with US foreign policy objectives. The reason the United States continues to remain close to Yoweri Museveni  is because of Al-Shabab in Somalia. He is seen as a reliable leader in the fight against the terrorist organization. However, it has been alleged that Ugandan officers were selling weapons to Al-Shabab in 2014. Since the Arab Spring and the subsequent refugee crisis, President Yoweri Museveni has formulated another foreign policy direction. If the West is not reliable or helpful to him he can always back armed groups across various borders. If  external criticism becomes to much of an irritant he merely can look abroad. 

         Yoweri Museveni has a larger regional  and international political ambition. He wants Uganda to become a First World economy. Corruption within the National Resistance Movement has halted this. Although the discovery of oil could lead to new economic opportunities, it could make the country a target for Western intervention. The resource does give Uganda a level of power, but basing an economy off of one finite natural resource could lead to future economic turmoil. Through the years Uganda has engaged in military intervention and it is clear it has a regional purpose. Yoweri Museveni dreams of an East Africa federation. He normally explains this in the context of Pan-African ideology. However this is not to promote unity, cooperation, or peace across the continent. Uganda would serve as a leader in this East African federation with neighboring states being either subordinates or followers to the Ugandan core. This to an extent is being experimented with in South Sudan, with a heavy Ugandan troop presence. 

The alliance with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is the start of a possible implementation of Museveni's dream of an East African federation. His support for President Kiir will bring him in to conflict with President Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan. Kenya and Sudan may not approve of such aggressive and what some believe reckless decisions. Just like in the Second Congolese Civil War, Museveni is taking sides in South Sudan's civil war. Yoweri  Museveni needs military equipment, weapons, and supplies to remain involved in various conflicts. One place it got military aid was from North Korea. The relations with North Korea go back as far as 1963. Since 2007 North Korea has provided instructors for training programmes for Ugandan army and police forces. North Korea would sell weapons to Uganda and both nations had security agreements. This agreement would collapse under Kim Jung Un. The reason could have been due to the UN sanctions in regards to North Korean nuclear weapons tests. The Ugandan government claimed they did this because they valued nuclear non-proliferation. South Korea could have been more responsible for this outcome, providing Uganda with a much more attractive aid package. Former President Park Geun Hye  was able to negotiate this during her East Africa tour in 2016. It is uncertain how South Korean policy will change under a new administration, since her fall from power. South Korea reaching out to Uganda was done as early as 2013 to undermine the North Korean position in Africa. 

Yoweri Museveni no matter what happened between North Korea and South Korea would still benefit. International tension elsewhere can provide new opportunities for Yoweri Museveni to legitimize his long term rule and policies. The revived tension between Europe and Russia means that these countries will competing for influence around the world. Yoweri Museveni can go to either Russia or China if the West attempts to isolate him. So, far he avoided the pariah state label mostly due to the fact the Bush administration considered him an ally in the War on Terror. Africa was unfortunately swept up in the American policy of perpetual warfare with the Trans-Saharan Counter-terrorism Initiative. With the NATO invasion of Libya and the collapse  of the Amadou Toure government in Mali, the West is looking for leaders to keep certain areas stable. Yoweri Museveni has gained more power from the chaos that followed western  military intervention. He took advantage of this condemning the invasion of Libya as attempt to reinforce his Pan-African credentials. The real intent was to show that he was a strong leader and never would be submissive to European powers. Always a calculating politician, he knows how to out maneuver his foes. His foreign policy has shifted from a west to east direction, while getting more involved in the affairs of neighboring states. 

         Yoweri Museveni's fifth term will not be his last. His rule has been so long that he has become the face of Uganda. His supporters claim that under his leadership Uganda is functional. There are prices that have been paid under a stern leadership. The persecution of the Acholi, a Christian fundamentalist fanaticism resulting in anti-LGBT legislation, and wars across borders have caused harm to thousands. It would seem such war crimes and abuses of power would result in an uprising. Removal would bring various complications. Ethnic and political conflict could breakout. A long term civil war could follow resulting in a failed state. The only solution is for Uganda to have a peaceful transfer of power. There have been too many violent overthrows of previous governments and coups. Sparking another incident would only repeat previous cycles. Yoweri Museveni has shown he is a political and military survivor. His removal would only become another chance for the West to establish a puppet state. If Museveni is to be challenged it has to be done by Ugandans who no longer see his leadership as legitimate. Yoweri Museveni now holds office, but still understands there is still opposition within the National Resistance Movement Party. This could be more perilous than armed insurgencies or external interventions. The internal threat coming within his party requires him to reinvent himself continuously to appeal to a generation that does not remember the past. For now, Yoweri Museveni 's position remains secure. 

                                                                                References 

Arnold, Guy. Civil Wars in Africa . Toronto: The Scare Crow Press Inc , 2008. 

"Uganda Halts Military Alliance with North Korea amid Talks with South." Enca.com. N.p., 30 May 2016. Web. 02 July 2017. <http://www.enca.com/africa/uganda-halts-military-alliance-with-north-korea-amid-talks-with-south>.

Yoweri Museveni - Uganda's President Profiled." BBC News. BBC, 17 Feb. 2016. Web. 02 July 2017. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12421747>.

Epstein, Helen. "Uganda: The General Challenges The Dictator." The New York Review of Books. The New York Review of Books, 24 Apr. 2014. Web. 02 July 2017. <http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2014/04/24/uganda-general-challenges-dictator/>.

      Imaka, Issac. "As Elections Sweep Africa, Uganda Stands out." Miamiherald. Miami Herald, 13 June 2015. Web. 02 July 2017. <http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article24054751.html>.